With Brent crude trading above 90$ / barrel, markets beg the question if we are about to enter a new bull run in energy markets – indicators could very well point towards it. But watch out for the elephant in the room: Uranium.
With the recent move in Energy, discussions on a broad second wave of inflation have resurfaced. There are similarities to the first wave, but also one MAJOR difference. Here is why..
Our services week is hot and running, where we share our take on the rebound in manufacturing amidst a weakening in the services sector. Today we will share some of the takes we have looked at, as well as what lies ahead
The Chinese stimulus measures presented last week could provide generalists with another reason to jump the Energy bull train. Does this mean that the energy optimism is close to peak?
Sticky inflation, renewed issues with high energy costs and a light recession in the making already. Europe screams stagflation and even the ECB admits to it. Meanwhile, we are edging closer to the actual payroll recession in the US.
Early evidence from Germany suggests that energy is back wreaking havoc with the disinflation momentum. Meanwhile markets see the landslide in job openings in the US as recessionary, but is it really?
What should we expect if the whispers of massiv crude oil draws hold true, and does last year’s LNG-hoarding safeguard Europe if the coming winter turns out to be a cold one? We have taken a look.
A weaker USD, a slight rebound in the Manufacturing cycle and still tight supply has re-ignited the energy space alongside the broader commodity trend. There is certainly progress for bulls now.
The sudden weakness in the USD adds to the list of positives for energy and commodities overall. Is the best possible bull setup now in place? We take a look.
Rates are moving on the back of strong numbers in the labor market, but energy is not finding a bid… yet? This week we wonder if there is life in energy after all.
The equity rally continues, Xi is in the middle of structural issues, house lending is falling off a cliff in EZ and inflation is waning fast. Read more about the 5 things that we watch currently in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’.
Europe has seen some remarkable energy prices in recent days with record negative electricity prices in the North Western part of the continent, while Saudi Arabia strikes again and prolongs the supply cuts into August.
Energy markets remain calm despite a truly turbulent weekend in Russia. We look at the fundamentals of both Gas and Oil below.
We are now experiencing a full-blown battle between Saudi Arabia and oil specs! Will Saudi Arabia get the upper hand or do they suffer from diminishing returns?
The battle between MBS and Biden seems to be intensifying and so far Saudi Arabia is struggling to get the upper hand. Will the OPEC+ supply cut prove to be a game changer for markets?
In short:
Watch out for the OPEC meeting this week as desperation can become the killer of solidarity, Easing energy pressures lending a helping hand to the EM space, Industrial metals screaming for more Chinese credit impulses
Will OPEC+ be able to rock the boat in energy markets again? Saudi Arabian budget break-evens are probably 5-7$ above current selling prices and MBS could be tempted to try and force the price higher again. The issue is that China is not playing ball and other OPEC+ members oppose further production cuts.
While OPEC+ tries their best to prop up prices via cutbacks on supply, demand is evidently still not as strong as oil bulls would’ve liked. Will the Chinese momentum pick up and deplete reserves and will the turn of summer in the northern hemisphere counter such effects?
The Chinese comeback is still very services based, which has proven to be an issue for the energy bull case. Will the Chinese momentum be reignited in H2 and where does it leave the energy space?
Even the scarcity of energy will probably not bring bullish price-action back to natural gas markets, while the outlook for oil is brighter. Can oil and gas crush the obstacles that they are faced with? Find out in this version of the energy cable, where Warren and I as usual don’t quite agree.
Few markets have shown ambiguity like energy markets have, and the ghost of 2022 still haunts many investors deterring them pulling the trigger. Is a sequel brewing, or will the deterioration continue? We present to you two different takes on the matter.
The recent slide in oil prices is interesting given how many fundamentals supported the notion of higher prices. Is this a temporary setback for the oil bulls? And how will Nat Gas fare in this environment?
Energy has been one of the clear victims of the banking stress, but a more positive outlook may re-surface once the dust settles. Is it time to get upbeat on oil prices? Andreas and Warren disagree.
The Energy Cable #11: Trust the plan Our price models are deteriorating under the surface. The oil and gas bull market is probably not around the corner. We look at risk/reward in the energy space in the context of the recessionary vibes stemming from the banking crisis. We know, we know … You are all focused on the banking drama in the US and its potential contagion to other markets. We wouldn’t want to let you down on a fresh Energy Cable, however we promise to be brief. Our latest model updates do not hint of a bull-market in energy around the corner. Rather the contrary. Let’s have a look at the risk/reward across oil, nat gas and metals in the context of the ongoing banking crisis. Steno Research: China bought as much energy as they usually do in 2022. Forget about the “reopening story” in Energy Loyal readers will know that we have remained very skeptical about the bullish outlook for energy on the back of the Chinese reopening. Lo and behold, we have some more data to back up that point. The ‘Europe is doomed once China starts to bid for LNG’ story has been the go to story by doomsday sayers and other charlatans but we just don’t see it. Firstly let’s just compare the Chinese demand for LNG imports with Japan. 2023 has seen Japanese demand converging towards Chinese. Moving on to the average LNG import by China. In a lockdown year China […]
Risk reward may be about to turn for parts of the European energy space after a land-slide in prices in recent quarters. Will margins increase this spring again? Let’s have a look at the details, while we wait for more data in oil space.
Greetings from Copenhagen everybody! It is Tuesday and that means another energy cable. Inventories are building, while jet fuel demand remains subdued compared to projections. In this update from 3Fourteen and Steno Research we take you through everything you need to know about current energy market trends and how to trade them.
China actively uses its reserves to fight price trends and currently BOTH the US and China release reserves simultaneously. This is more than enough to counter Russian production cuts. Here is why!
Is Russia back in the driver’s seat after the supply cut announced late last week? If China adds demand, while Russia cuts supply, it may be a bullish cocktail for energy.. But so far the truly bullish price action remains to be seen.
Every Wednesday our Head of Research, Andreas Steno, goes through the 5 most important themes/charts in global macro right now and how we assess them. Enjoy!
Bearish inventories across both oil and natural gas and waiting for the Chinese reopening to show up! Here is the latest “Energy Cable” update on Natural Gas, Oil – and the overall energy complex with price signals and model based predictions. The only publication to cover this sector across geographies and asset classes. Enjoy!