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Something for your Espresso: Energy is back

Something for your Espresso: Energy is back

Early evidence from Germany suggests that energy is back wreaking havoc with the disinflation momentum. Meanwhile markets see the landslide in job openings in the US as recessionary, but is it really?

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5 Things We Watch – The Equity Rally, the Chinese consumption problem, Consumers vs Corporates, 20/21 reversed?, MBS and the Fed

5 Things We Watch – The Equity Rally, the Chinese consumption problem, Consumers vs Corporates, 20/21 reversed?, MBS and the Fed

The equity rally continues, Xi is in the middle of structural issues, house lending is falling off a cliff in EZ and inflation is waning fast. Read more about the 5 things that we watch currently in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’.

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The Energy Cable #23 – MBS vs Biden!

The Energy Cable #23 – MBS vs Biden!

The battle between MBS and Biden seems to be intensifying and so far Saudi Arabia is struggling to get the upper hand. Will the OPEC+ supply cut prove to be a game changer for markets?

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The Energy Cable #35 – Are monster draws ahead?

The Energy Cable #22 – China is not playing ball

Will OPEC+ be able to rock the boat in energy markets again? Saudi Arabian budget break-evens are probably 5-7$ above current selling prices and MBS could be tempted to try and force the price higher again. The issue is that China is not playing ball and other OPEC+ members oppose further production cuts.

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The Energy Cable #35 – Are monster draws ahead?

The Energy Cable #20 – The Tension Builds

The Chinese comeback is still very services based, which has proven to be an issue for the energy bull case. Will the Chinese momentum be reignited in H2 and where does it leave the energy space?

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The Energy Cable #35 – Are monster draws ahead?

The Energy Cable #19 – Watch out for temperatures to be a joker in Nat Gas markets

Even the scarcity of energy will probably not bring bullish price-action back to natural gas markets, while the outlook for oil is brighter. Can oil and gas crush the obstacles that they are faced with? Find out in this version of the energy cable, where Warren and I as usual don’t quite agree.

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The Energy Cable #35 – Are monster draws ahead?

The Energy Cable #18 – Dwindling USD liquidity and Oil

Few markets have shown ambiguity like energy markets have, and the ghost of 2022 still haunts many investors deterring them pulling the trigger. Is a sequel brewing, or will the deterioration continue? We present to you two different takes on the matter.

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The Energy Cable #35 – Are monster draws ahead?

The Energy Cable #17 – Testing The Bulls

The recent slide in oil prices is interesting given how many fundamentals supported the notion of higher prices. Is this a temporary setback for the oil bulls? And how will Nat Gas fare in this environment?

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The Energy Cable #13 – Oil – Bull Case Approaching?

The Energy Cable #11: Trust the plan

  The Energy Cable #11: Trust the plan Our price models are deteriorating under the surface. The oil and gas bull market is probably not around the corner. We look at risk/reward in the energy space in the context of the recessionary vibes stemming from the banking crisis. We know, we know … You are all focused on the banking drama in the US and its potential contagion to other markets. We wouldn’t want to let you down on a fresh Energy Cable, however we promise to be brief. Our latest model updates do not hint of a bull-market in energy around the corner. Rather the contrary. Let’s have a look at the risk/reward across oil, nat gas and metals in the context of the ongoing banking crisis. Steno Research: China bought as much energy as they usually do in 2022. Forget about the “reopening story” in Energy Loyal readers will know that we have remained very skeptical about the bullish outlook for energy on the back of the Chinese reopening. Lo and behold, we have some more data to back up that point. The ‘Europe is doomed once China starts to bid for LNG’ story has been the go to story by doomsday sayers and other charlatans but we just don’t see it. Firstly let’s just compare the Chinese demand for LNG imports with Japan. 2023 has seen Japanese demand converging towards Chinese.      Moving on to the average LNG import by China. In a lockdown year China […]

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The Energy Cable #35 – Are monster draws ahead?

The Energy Cable #9: Putting inventories into perspective

Greetings from Copenhagen everybody! It is Tuesday and that means another energy cable. Inventories are building, while jet fuel demand remains subdued compared to projections. In this update from 3Fourteen and Steno Research we take you through everything you need to know about current energy market trends and how to trade them.

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The Energy Cable #35 – Are monster draws ahead?

The Energy Cable #6 Bearish inventories across both oil and natural gas and waiting for the Chinese reopening to show up!

Bearish inventories across both oil and natural gas and waiting for the Chinese reopening to show up! Here is the latest “Energy Cable” update on Natural Gas, Oil – and the overall energy complex with price signals and model based predictions. The only publication to cover this sector across geographies and asset classes. Enjoy! 

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The Energy Cable #35 – Are monster draws ahead?

The Energy Cable #5: The energy market link to the Chinese reopening and the Iranian attacks

Is the Chinese reopening a true game-changer and how will the attacks in Iran over the weekend alter the geopolitical risk picture for energy markets? We provide our takes alongside updated price signals on oil and natural gas. “We are happy when people/things conform and unhappy when they don’t. People and events don’t disappoint us, our models of reality do. It is my model of reality that determines my happiness or disappointments.” – Stefan Zweig 3Fourteen Research: The true story on the Chinese reopening The China reopening story has fueled oil’s 2023 rise. Read the last sentence carefully. I specifically said the China reopening “story.” Said differently, it has not been the reopening of China that has propelled oil to this point. Rather, it has been the “story” of the reopening. Three weeks ago, we dug into oil’s physical market. Back then, we argued that oil could not divorce from its physical reality for very long. With that said, over short time horizons, oil regularly divorces from the physical market. Ultimately, to make an educated guess of where oil is going, you must understand both the physical and paper markets. Today, we take a look at the paper market and how we incorporate it into the 3Fourteen Core Crude Oil Model. At present, the Model remains Neutral (components below). The physical and technical components are bullish. The inventory component is bearish. And, the positioning (i.e. paper or futures) component is neutral. We account for the paper market in the “Positioning” […]

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