Energy Watch: Time for Nat Gas to outshine Oil?
Back at the office after spending time with clients in the energy space with loads of discussions around the intersphere between Macro and energy markets.
The mood is obviously upbeat and the sell-side consensus is getting relatively crowded in calls for a higher oil price. Where were these people 2-3 months ago? 🙂
A few observations from my discussions (also with other sparring partners lately)
1) There is a broad consensus that oil will reach > $100 territory due to a historic Q4 deficit
2) There is a broad consensus that Biden will not use the SPR until H2-2024
3) It is debatable whether China is still incentivized to keep oil prices low with both local production (>5mn barrels a day) and de facto access/ownership of Russian production
4) There is a load of sector speculation around when we will see LNG / Nat Gas benchmarks reaction. The missing link is just a tiny uptick in German industrial demand.