• Energy markets in Europe still fragile
• A hot summer and manufacturing rebound could set prices going
• Manufacturing cycle is improving everywhere but in Germany
• Cost-push inflation showing up in drilling now

Hi and welcome to another energy cable from a sunny Copenhagen.

This week we want to talk about the ingredients needed for another summer of exploding electricity and gas prices. We start in France where we find that French power exports are still elevated even though prices have come down. Just look at the base load spread between France and Germany which is back to pre-energy crisis levels. So why is this an issue? Well the system has become a lot more fragile post 2022. Let’s start with supply fragility.

Chart 1: German nuclear shut down and no Nord Stream gas have left markets fragile