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EM by EM #33: Early Hikers = Early Steepeners?

EM by EM #33: Early Hikers = Early Steepeners?

Forward curves continue to trend lower in the US and Eurozone. The early adopters are leading the way, but perhaps Yellen’s spending spree will pose another challenge for her EM colleagues. We have taken a look at potential receiver/steepener cases in EM space.

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Portfolio Watch: How we play the last FOMC meeting of 2023

Portfolio Watch: No Quarter and No Surrender

The EIA report indicates demand drop, Non-farm payroll signals a soft landing, and we’ve taken a spread trade loss. We’re in challenging waters. How should we position ourselves, and how are we doing? Read our weekly Portfolio review below

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ECB Watch: Damned if you do & doomed if you don’t?

ECB Watch: Damned if you do & doomed if you don’t?

We have argued that risks of a more rapid disinflation in Europe are going under the radar. But as we get poor job opening numbers from the US, how do we assess the growth trajectory of the EZ and how will the ECB likely act?

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US Rates Nugget: More stagflation confusion from the NFIB

Jackson Hole Nugget: “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy”

The Jackson Hole conference is a very binary event with the theme of the conference being “Structural Shifts In The Economy”. Will the Fed take the opportunity to talk about a higher inflation target or will they try to kill all hopes of lower interest rates in to 2024? It is either or!

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Portfolio Watch: How we play the last FOMC meeting of 2023

Portfolio Watch: Catching a Chinese cold?

Summer volatility razor, BoJ and Xi’s real estate malaise have all contributed to headwinds for most asset classes. We are still alive and kicking despite a few knocks and bruises. Read here for full context

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Positioning Watch – Positioning for lower yields and weaker USD

Positioning Watch – Preparing for (dis)inflation?

With a strong jobs report and a soft CPI print, the market is currently digesting divergent data. In the upcoming weeks, we will closely observe market positioning to interpret the implications for price action. If the inflation paradigm is shifting, how are markets prepared?

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