We revisit the eurosceptic case to assess whether we have let our pessimism get the better of us. Or could Euro bulls still be in peril?
If we indeed get a short-term cyclical rebound, the yield curve is going to be tested. Does a hugely inverted curve rhyme with a rebound in manufacturing? Probably not. Let’s have a look at it.
With a strong jobs report and a soft CPI print, the market is currently digesting divergent data. In the upcoming weeks, we will closely observe market positioning to interpret the implications for price action. If the inflation paradigm is shifting, how are markets prepared?
We are back up on the week having forecasted the CPI record better than the street but contrary to the prevailing sentiment we think this juncture may prove a little counterintuitive
The June CPI report (released on Wednesday) is the final easily disinflationary report before base-effects start working against the trend for almost a quarter. Here is our chart-package on how things are going to play out..
50bps from Norges Bank and the Bank of England, which will raise the stake for the RIksbank next week. Equities having a hard time due to the sudden resurfacing hawkishness.
Now that the dust has settled after last week’s ECB meeting, we look at the four charts that are likely to guide the ECBs decision-making process over the summer. July and done?
Welcome to the Central Bank Bonanza with meetings of both the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan. We’re covering it all live here on stenoresearch.com. Ask your questions below!
BoC and RBA have hawked up the sentiment again, while forward-looking indicators point in the other direction. Here are the FIVE things we watch right now in global macro!
Biden is allegedly planning to leave Washington for the Memorial weekend, which underpins the probability of our base-case of a shutdown and a prolonged debt ceiling stand-off. The TGA is now BELOW typical shutdown levels.
With Lagarde and her companions taking a semi-hawkish stance recently, Italy is in a difficult position as funding possibilities are narrowing in front of their eyes. They need somebody to buy their govies, while the ECB wants to tighten policy further. Follow along in today’s piece, where we dive into the details of the Italian government and its debt problems.
A pause is now the clear base case. The regional banking stress is now more equity/credit driven than deposit driven, which will be harder to backstop for the FDIC and the authorities. Will the ECB sound dovish?
Following the publication of my EM by EM debut piece, where I highlighted the attractive set-up for Brazilian sovereigns (which thus far have fared well), we now shift our focus across the Pacific to Beijing.
The FOMC will likely decide to raise the Fed Funds target range by 25bps and regret it soon thereafter on Wednesday. Everything but the banking sector stress screams higher interest rates, why the Fed will attempt to regain control of the narrative.
Up, down, up, down. Front-end rates are schizophrenic these days and the hiking cycle is close to being over consequently. The banking crisis “complicates communication”.
What happens when the curve steepens? It is bad good news for commodities, mixed news for equities and often temporarily good news for the USD except against JPY. Here is why..
RBA echoed other major central banks by clearly stating that inflation has peaked. This is a potential interesting harbinger ahead of Powell’s appearance in the US congress
In this somewhat unusual edition of the ‘Positioning Watch’ we’ll take a look at relevant and readily available data to assess whether we are leaning with or against the wind. Maybe this can provide further insight into the ambiguity which we have experienced in markets lately.
If this truly is a rebound in activity with consumption back in the service sector, then there is no reason to sell equities. This is the big schism currently. Why sell both fixed income and equities if the economy is doing better? Current market trends are not sustainable. Something will HAVE to give.
The importance of the dollar and its influence on almost any given asset will come to nobody’s surprise, especially after its tear in 2022, which was like a wrecking ball, wreaking havoc in and around the financial system. Therefore we are launching the Dollar O’ Meter to track the USD versus peers.
While liquid markets are still trying to make up their minds on whether to rise from the ashes of H2 2022 or continue the downward trajectory, I think it is due time we put the real estate markets under the scrutinous loop once more.
It is a BIG week in Japanese central bank history with widespread speculation of another increase to the trading range of 10yr JGBs in the yield curve control program. More than 35 bps are priced in, but will BoJ fail to deliver?
