US Rates Nugget: More stagflation confusion from the NFIB
This cycle has been notoriously tricky to navigate and there are odd signs of a cyclical pick-up in prices, wages and growth momentum, while certain recession indicators flash red. NFIB adds to the stagflationary confusion ahead of 2024.
As per usual, we get some of the most interesting early evidence on inflation already ahead of the monthly CPI report with the release of the NFIB survey conducted among mostly service-based SMEs.
Price plans accelerated again over the past month, which is a headfake pattern that we have seen ahead of earlier recessions for example in 2007/2008, but…
Chart 1: Price plans accelerate again
This cycle has been notoriously tricky to navigate and there are odd signs of a cyclical pick-up in prices, wages and growth momentum, while certain recession indicators flash red. NFIB adds to the stagflationary confusion ahead of 2024.
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