The Fed projects higher rates for longer, while oil production cuts persist. How do markets play the “Higher for longer and Lower for longer” ? Read our weekly report below
Portfolio Watch: Any juice left in the anti-Europe bet?
The short Europe bet is getting increasingly crowded but for good reasons, while the energy bet, impressively, is not overly crowded yet. That is comforting for EUR shorts as energy is a main driver of European versus US allocation.
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Positioning Watch – The Chinese disappointment is written all over the latest positioning
CPI is cooling with economic data still suggesting that we are in a Goldilocks scenario. But are markets claiming their victory too early? And will unusual optimism be the catalyst for a recession?
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Positioning Watch: From Japan with Love
A lot of volatility and plenty of aspects to digest after a red week in markets. But how have positioning and sentiment moved? Read here to for our view
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Positioning Watch – The market’s response to another Fed hike
The central bank week is over, and that means it’s time for us to have a look at how Investors and Traders perceived the Fed meeting and how they have adjusted their portfolios in response.
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Positioning Watch – The Goldilocks scenario is intensifying
With everybody jumping onboard on the equity rally, we have a look at how retail investors are positioned in equities, and what surveys have to offer us on the positioning front
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Positioning Watch – Preparing for (dis)inflation?
With a strong jobs report and a soft CPI print, the market is currently digesting divergent data. In the upcoming weeks, we will closely observe market positioning to interpret the implications for price action. If the inflation paradigm is shifting, how are markets prepared?
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5 Things We Watch – US CPI, Japan, Positioning, Fed Borrowing and Oil
With the US inflation report coming in later today, we have a look at the 5 things that we are keeping an eye out for in markets.
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Positioning Watch – The 60/40 portfolio in reverse
The summer lull is here, which normally calls for a quiet period in markets. But volatility might not be as low throughout July as a lot of people anticipated, which could force PMs back from the beaches. Follow along as we dissect how traders are positioned coming into the vacation season.
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Positioning Watch – Markets are blowing off the recession
Economic data keeps surprising us positively, and markets are starting to believe that a soft landing is the base case. That’s at least what positioning data is telling us.
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Positioning Watch: War in Russia? Markets are forward-looking but never see it coming
Positioning will be KEY to watch as political risks and tensions mount. We offer our view on the data for the past week as Yevgeny Prigozhin marches on Moscow.
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EM by EM #9 The EM proxy crime and when to commit it
As a new addition to our editorial, I will now provide a monthly overview of emerging markets, taking a step back from the intricacies and offering a broader perspective. The purpose of this feature is to outline our current positioning within the market cycle and highlight the key factors we are monitoring surrounding EM.
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Positioning Watch: Like a dog chasing its own tail
Positioning is a MUST watch now that the Fed has skipped/paused. The risk of positioning getting crowded over the next couple of months is high and we aim at riding the wave until positioning tells us not to.
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Positioning Watch – Turning our attention to Institutions and Fund Flows
Bullish price action and the soft-landing narrative is still roaring in markets, and we thus wonder whether It’s just the AI bonanza that’s driving market sentiment, or if the big players have actually switched their views. We take a look at institutional positioning and fund flows in this week’s edition.
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Positioning Watch – The soft landing narrative is scratching the surface again
With the debt ceiling deal done and yesterday’s stunning NFP numbers, the soft landing narrative seems to be back, and optimism is gaining territory in the global macro scene. See what this means for positioning across asset classes, and whether you’ve placed your eggs in the right basket.
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Positioning Watch: The mystery behind the massive shorts in equities and bonds
Based on price action, equity optimism is back, but positioning data tells us another story. We unfold the mystery, as well as providing you with positioning data across asset classes. Find out if you share the view of traders in this week’s edition.
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Positioning Watch: FX market positioning is completely out of sync with the rest..
The Bank of England no longer sees a recession as the base-case, while a truckload of bank economists seems to be boarding the boat to soft landing island. Have traders followed along in positioning? Let’s see.
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Positioning Watch: Gimme shelther
Now that the ECB and Fed meetings have concluded, we can assess how traders have positioned themselves after the curtains have closed
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Positioning Watch – Gold party still on
Cheers to the weekend everyone! And welcome back to your Positioning Watch series. The data is now up to speed again and you can always find ALL positioning data readily available in our datahub. We will highlight the most important conclusions weekly in this series. Equity positioning: Nasdaq positioning remains LONG – Nasdaq keeps up steam from the easter – Overall equity positioning remains short but the sentiment is not overly bearish across styles/s While the recent liquidity injection has offered tailwinds to equities we suspect fundamentals won’t justify the valuations as the sugar rush reverses. We could still see some optimism play out, but overall our long beta is running on fumes and thus trimmed down a tad FX Positioning: JPY is still unpopular – JPY positioning keeps bearish overall but a tad less than during easter – The EUR bet is still very consensusy, while BRL bullishness has lost a bit of steam – The USD positioning is long and BRL is slowly losing its favour among speculators We remain positive on BRL which seems cheap and offers good real rates in a world starving for inflation- safety. Suffice to say price action has yet to follow suit Commodity Positioning: Gold party is still on – Gold positioning may look stretched and plenty of profits could be ripe for taking. But positioning remains long for now – Energy still hasn’t got the recession memo On the surface, it may look as if oil is simply proxying expectations of […]
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Positioning Watch: Silence before the storm
It seems like traders are hesitant to make major allocation adjustments in the current environment, leaving us with a ‘silence before the storm’ impression. Find out if you have your eggs in the correct baskets in this week’s edition.
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Positioning Watch – Nasdaq positioning is LONG again
Our positioning watch is back! Find out whether you lean with or against the wind in this weekly publication.
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Flow Watch: Any buyers left?
What a week. Let’s have a look at flow and positioning indicators. Some of them will surprise you
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Positioning Watch: How big were the SVB flows?
Let’s have a look at our flow -and positioning indicators after a week of market turbulence. How big were the SVB-fueled flows on Thursday and Friday? We look across assets in this analysis.
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Positioning Watch: Does positioning and fund flows unfog the ambiguity ruling markets?
In this somewhat unusual edition of the ‘Positioning Watch’ we’ll take a look at relevant and readily available data to assess whether we are leaning with or against the wind. Maybe this can provide further insight into the ambiguity which we have experienced in markets lately.
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Positioning Watch: Investors are yet again short bonds..
We have looked at fund flows now that CFTC data on positioning remains unavailable due to a data-issue. Bond speculation is getting short again, while investors are not buying the rebounds in the USD and Tech/Discretionary stocks
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Positioning watch – A turn to fund flows
What to do when COT-data is delayed? Here is a ‘special edition’ of our weekly ‘Positioning Watch’ covering recent fund flows in major ETFs in various asset classes. How do people really feel about the latest movements in markets not least given the absurd economic data released this week?
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Positioning Watch – Is this a bear market rally or the beginning of a bull run?
We look into how traders are positioned every Saturday to assess whether we are leaning with or against the wind. Is this a new bull run or just another bear market rally? Let’s have a look at the numbers
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Positioning Watch – A sentiment-gauge across asset classes
Saturday is here, and we hope that you all have a great weekend. Meanwhile, Saturday also means fresh CFTC COT data, so while we endorse you to kick up your feet, we’ll present to you our updated dashboards on positioning across asset classes and highlight the peculiarities that catch our eyes.
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Positioning Watch – How are traders positioned?
Each Saturday we provide you with the updated positioning across asset classes and highlight the anomalies we find. Are you leaning the same way as the crowd? Check it out here.
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