Positioning Watch: War in Russia? Markets are forward-looking but never see it coming
All eyes are on the current developments taking place in Russia and we will be monitoring the situation closely in the coming days.
My colleague Mikkel has just today authored this write up and besides the military on the ground movements, we too will be monitoring the political events unfold through the lenses of the market, AND in this respect positioning is vital.
There is an age-old saying that goes: “Markets are forward-looking but never see it coming” – So how are markets generally set up for this surprise?
If you had told anyone coming into 2023 that BTC would outperform Oil this year you would likely have been a laughing stock on most trading floors. Alas, it has not only outperformed Oil which is down for the year, but more than DOUBLED its value in USD terms YTD. Will this keep up? Positioning remains bearish in Futures
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Chart of the Week: Crypto Positioning
Positioning will be KEY to watch as political risks and tensions mount. We offer our view on the data for the past week as Yevgeny Prigozhin marches on Moscow.