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Positioning Watch: Like a dog chasing its own tail

Positioning is a MUST watch now that the Fed has skipped/paused. The risk of positioning getting crowded over the next couple of months is high and we aim at riding the wave until positioning tells us not to.
2023-06-17

The pause/skip is here!

We are yet to get the final confirmation of an actual pause, but we are stuck with a feeling that Powell and the Fed deliberately tried to embed a hawkish bias in the pause-rhetoric to prevent markets from extrapolating trends. Whether the Fed will succeed over time is another discussion. Markets tend to melt UP on the back of a pause as interest vol comes down.

Positioning remains negative/bearish/recessionary why the real money players are likely going to chase their own tails in coming weeks trying to catch up to benchmark performance. Let’s have a look at the details.

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Chart of the week: A Fed pause is typically good news for risk assets

Positioning is a MUST watch now that the Fed has skipped/paused. The risk of positioning getting crowded over the next couple of months is high and we aim at riding the wave until positioning tells us not to.
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