The NFP postpones the recession chatter (again) and markets will have to swallow that message as the FOMC meeting will be impacted by hawkish data surprises.
Portfolio Watch: Trading the next of the rolling melt-ups
Liquidity will improve markedly from 16th of June and onwards, while we continue to see rolling melt-ups in real world assets. We see an increasing risk of a new melt up in commodity space.
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Portfolio Watch: The real world is reflating again
Our portfolio cheers on the broadening commodities rally! We delve into the risks and opportunities of this surge, its reflationary impact on strategic allocation, and present our convictions going forward.
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Portfolio Watch: Inflation DIVERGENCE is growing
The inflation divergence theme is growing in importance, while the Rest of the World is catching up (or down) to the US in terms of financial conditions. Here is how we position for it..
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Portfolio Watch: Data green-lighting continued rally – cautious metals however
China has been in the limelight recently, and the attention from clients match the evident rotation in managed positioning. While tremendously yielding, we’ve decided to de-risk in metals but keep overall cyclical exposure.
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Portfolio Watch: Sea of cyclical green
The cyclical rotation keeps rolling, and recent comments affirmed in our view that the Fed will allow the economy to reflate here. We caught on early and continue to reap great gains.
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Portfolio Watch: What if we add a rate cut to this fire..
The cyclical rotation is slowly but surely rolling and if central banks add rate cuts to this mix, we are staring directly into the melt up.
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Portfolio Watch: NVDA or Bust?
US tech has been our saving grace, and we’re reaching a point where it’s legitimate to ask if there’s any point in doing anything other than buying NVDA?
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Portfolio Watch: Riding a Rollercoaster
Manic price action across the board this week and everything looks up in the air. We are still alive and kicking despite the volatility
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Portfolio Watch: Aboard the train but starring at the emergency exit
Sticky prices and high growth appears to be the winning combination to bet on, and this week’s data undoubtedly reaffirmed that. Read below for our full take!
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Portfolio Watch: The Yellen Put
Powell had his fun in December and now Yellen is preparing her next move. Here is how we play it
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Portfolio Watch: Peak Dovishness & more liquidity?
While we’ve persistently underscored the risks of intensifying conflicts in the Middle East and enduring inflation in the US, it’s evident that politics serves as the unifying factor behind both. Read how we are playing this environment below!
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Portfolio Watch: Chasing ships and fading narratives
Geopolitics is at the front seat of financial markets these days and the data prints we are given are anything but conclusive. Read how we start off the year below!
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Portfolio Watch: How we play the last FOMC meeting of 2023
We have made adjustments to our portfolio in preparation for the FOMC decision week,. Read our full take of the current macroeconomic landscape and see our new positions below
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Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?
We did get a tad wrongfooted today on our ISM prediction. Despite having seen some decent returns lately the print works against our December call despite Powell doing his to keep it alive. Read our full take below
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Portfolio Watch: Celebration for the right or wrong reasons?
A softer than anticipated CPI print – spot on our forecast – lit the fuse for a rally in equities following a rally in bonds. Whether yields eased for the right reasons remains unclear. Read along as we dissect the moves, our performance and consider our allocations going forward.
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Portfolio Watch: Staying afloat in a Storm of Uncertainty
Market seems to be all over the place these past trading days and November has thus far both been trick & treat. We are green and have entered new positions. Read our full take below
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Something for your Espresso: Is the duration scare back?
The duration scare is back after a weak 30yr auction. We are yet to enter a home-run environment for USD durationistas, but a flatter curve may be on the cards until the December FOMC-meeting.
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Trade Alert: Moving out of Asia
As conditions doesn’t favour further upside in our Asian FX bets, which calls for profits to be taken.
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Portfolio Watch: November Bear Market Rally?
A mixed week for us with duration performing, but our equity spreads have taken a beating along with our 1 naked short. We booked some profits and added further exposure in Fixed income. Read below for our full take on the week and how we see the market in coming weeks
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Portfolio Watch: Equities running out of Gas?
We remain tilted towards a positive energy performance, a steeper USD curve, but now also risk sentiment weakness and some pockets of performance in European duration. Here is why!
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Portfolio Watch: Time to consider (EUR) bonds?
We barely dare suggest it. But are bonds finally reap for entry on the long side? We are definitely getting there. Read our latest Portfolio Watch below
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Portfolio Watch: The Art of Resisting Panic
Money is flowing towards safety, but the foundation beneath the market remains solid, with no signs of a downturn yet. In light of the geopolitical events we assess our Portfolio below
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Portfolio Watch: No Quarter and No Surrender
The EIA report indicates demand drop, Non-farm payroll signals a soft landing, and we’ve taken a spread trade loss. We’re in challenging waters. How should we position ourselves, and how are we doing? Read our weekly Portfolio review below
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Portfolio Watch: The last gasp of a dying man?
We’ve taken a massive WIN in recent weeks, but the markets are precarious here after blood on the street as seasonality shifts. Is there a final surge before the impending collapse?
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Portfolio Watch: The wheels are coming off in Europe
How do you trade the tight energy supply with increasing consensus in the oil market? We see various interesting proxies and have started to add them to our portfolio.
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Steno Signals #65 – The 4 things that worry me the most in global macro right now
I am getting increasingly concerned about (at least) four things in the current global macro setup, which leaves prudent risk management in investing more relevant than usual.
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Portfolio Watch: Any juice left in the anti-Europe bet?
The short Europe bet is getting increasingly crowded but for good reasons, while the energy bet, impressively, is not overly crowded yet. That is comforting for EUR shorts as energy is a main driver of European versus US allocation.
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Portfolio Watch: Anyone still in doubt of the US superiority?
Hail King USD! This week has been all about the US exceeding expectations, while the opposite is happening in the Euro area and to a certain extent in China.
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Asset Allocation Watch: Still early innings for US cyclicals?
While liquidity was on everyone’s lips 6 months ago, the net effects have been somewhat benign. Meanwhile, PMIs and inflation seem to be running the show. It appears that services are weakening coincidently with manufacturing showing strength. Board or aboard cyclicals then?
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