We did get a tad wrongfooted today on our ISM prediction. Despite having seen some decent returns lately the print works against our December call despite Powell doing his to keep it alive. Read our full take below
Portfolio Watch: Celebration for the right or wrong reasons?
A softer than anticipated CPI print – spot on our forecast – lit the fuse for a rally in equities following a rally in bonds. Whether yields eased for the right reasons remains unclear. Read along as we dissect the moves, our performance and consider our allocations going forward.
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Portfolio Watch: Staying afloat in a Storm of Uncertainty
Market seems to be all over the place these past trading days and November has thus far both been trick & treat. We are green and have entered new positions. Read our full take below
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Something for your Espresso: Is the duration scare back?
The duration scare is back after a weak 30yr auction. We are yet to enter a home-run environment for USD durationistas, but a flatter curve may be on the cards until the December FOMC-meeting.
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Trade Alert: Moving out of Asia
As conditions doesn’t favour further upside in our Asian FX bets, which calls for profits to be taken.
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Portfolio Watch: November Bear Market Rally?
A mixed week for us with duration performing, but our equity spreads have taken a beating along with our 1 naked short. We booked some profits and added further exposure in Fixed income. Read below for our full take on the week and how we see the market in coming weeks
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Portfolio Watch: Equities running out of Gas?
We remain tilted towards a positive energy performance, a steeper USD curve, but now also risk sentiment weakness and some pockets of performance in European duration. Here is why!
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Portfolio Watch: Time to consider (EUR) bonds?
We barely dare suggest it. But are bonds finally reap for entry on the long side? We are definitely getting there. Read our latest Portfolio Watch below
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Portfolio Watch: The Art of Resisting Panic
Money is flowing towards safety, but the foundation beneath the market remains solid, with no signs of a downturn yet. In light of the geopolitical events we assess our Portfolio below
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Portfolio Watch: No Quarter and No Surrender
The EIA report indicates demand drop, Non-farm payroll signals a soft landing, and we’ve taken a spread trade loss. We’re in challenging waters. How should we position ourselves, and how are we doing? Read our weekly Portfolio review below
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Portfolio Watch: The last gasp of a dying man?
We’ve taken a massive WIN in recent weeks, but the markets are precarious here after blood on the street as seasonality shifts. Is there a final surge before the impending collapse?
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Portfolio Watch: The wheels are coming off in Europe
How do you trade the tight energy supply with increasing consensus in the oil market? We see various interesting proxies and have started to add them to our portfolio.
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Steno Signals #65 – The 4 things that worry me the most in global macro right now
I am getting increasingly concerned about (at least) four things in the current global macro setup, which leaves prudent risk management in investing more relevant than usual.
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Portfolio Watch: Any juice left in the anti-Europe bet?
The short Europe bet is getting increasingly crowded but for good reasons, while the energy bet, impressively, is not overly crowded yet. That is comforting for EUR shorts as energy is a main driver of European versus US allocation.
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Portfolio Watch: Anyone still in doubt of the US superiority?
Hail King USD! This week has been all about the US exceeding expectations, while the opposite is happening in the Euro area and to a certain extent in China.
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Asset Allocation Watch: Still early innings for US cyclicals?
While liquidity was on everyone’s lips 6 months ago, the net effects have been somewhat benign. Meanwhile, PMIs and inflation seem to be running the show. It appears that services are weakening coincidently with manufacturing showing strength. Board or aboard cyclicals then?
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Portfolio Watch: Manufacturing versus Services
Everything in our US model portfolio screams that we need to continue to tilt the portfolio in a cyclical direction. The signal is just not confirmed across the Pond(s) in Europe and China.
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Portfolio Watch: Catching a Chinese cold?
Summer volatility razor, BoJ and Xi’s real estate malaise have all contributed to headwinds for most asset classes. We are still alive and kicking despite a few knocks and bruises. Read here for full context
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Portfolio Watch: Navigating Crossroads
A relatively strong week this one despite Xi keeps hunting us. The boomer trade has been doing bits along with the curve steepener. But we will probably be making changes soon. Read below for context
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Portfolio Watch: Steep, steeper, steepest!
The steepening of the USD curve is the overarching market driver and we have thankfully partially rotated our portfolio in the right direction ahead of the move. How do you trade a steeper yield curve across assets? Our weekly portfolio update is out!
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Portfolio Watch: Surfing the boomer wave
BoJ’s decision is of course the big talking point for markets this week. Our book keeps up despite some impact from Ueda’s decision- but what will it mean and how will we trade it in the coming weeks? Read our view below
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Portfolio Watch: From a bond bear bonanza to a stock rally
We are back up on the week having forecasted the CPI record better than the street but contrary to the prevailing sentiment we think this juncture may prove a little counterintuitive
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Portfolio Watch: The Summer Volatility Razor
Volatility has been detrimental to many books this week which too is reflected in some of our positions and it appears that diversification is gaining increased significance given the resurgence of volatility. Traders who are not paying attention here will pay for it involuntarily
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Asset Allocation Watch: Macro Regime Indicator – Introducing our brand new asset allocation model
Each month we assess the macro environment based on liquidity, inflation and growth models. Our models were right that inflation, growth and liquidity would all drop in June, but for July we see a possible slight uptick in growth, while inflation and liquidity will continue down.
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Portfolio Watch: A green comeback week
Follow along as we keep you updated on our live portfolio and how we view the world allocation-wise every week!
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Portfolio Watch: Bears & Hawks
With today’s recessionary PMI numbers, hawkish central bank rhetoric and a shift in price action, there are good reasons to believe that positioning might flip from now on, as investors will likely prefer bonds over equities.
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Portfolio Watch: Investors are still underweight risk
Bulls are reigning currently, and the Steno Research portfolio keeps riding the wave. Has the rally got legs or is it time to cash in while we’re ahead? – Our considerations here.
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Portfolio Watch #2 FOMO remains the game in town
Our portfolio is green and we are content with the returns despite a few bad apples in the mix. The market environment is uncertain, and we anticipate increased selling pressure is imminent once the tightening gets going. Risk management and diversification are crucial in this setup. See our weekly performance evaluation for here details
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Steno Signals #50 – Singing Hallelujah while sleeping at the wheel!
AI is mana sent from heaven, while McCarthy and Biden have allegedly agreed on a debt ceiling deal. We continue to favor positions with a positive beta to slowing inflation despite the recent concerns around stickier for longer.
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Portfolio Watch #1 – Not your rookie market
As we close out our first week with a live portfolio, we are excited to introduce our new weekly watch piece, providing a comprehensive summary of our trading week. Every Friday, we will release this publication, and we extend a warm welcome to you all in this premiere edition!
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