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Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?

Portfolio Watch: Celebration for the right or wrong reasons?

A softer than anticipated CPI print – spot on our forecast – lit the fuse for a rally in equities following a rally in bonds. Whether yields eased for the right reasons remains unclear. Read along as we dissect the moves, our performance and consider our allocations going forward.

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Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?

Portfolio Watch: November Bear Market Rally?

A mixed week for us with duration performing, but our equity spreads have taken a beating along with our 1 naked short. We booked some profits and added further exposure in Fixed income. Read below for our full take on the week and how we see the market in coming weeks

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Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?

Portfolio Watch: The Art of Resisting Panic

Money is flowing towards safety, but the foundation beneath the market remains solid, with no signs of a downturn yet. In light of the geopolitical events we assess our Portfolio below

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Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?

Portfolio Watch: No Quarter and No Surrender

The EIA report indicates demand drop, Non-farm payroll signals a soft landing, and we’ve taken a spread trade loss. We’re in challenging waters. How should we position ourselves, and how are we doing? Read our weekly Portfolio review below

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Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?

Portfolio Watch: Any juice left in the anti-Europe bet?

The short Europe bet is getting increasingly crowded but for good reasons, while the energy bet, impressively, is not overly crowded yet. That is comforting for EUR shorts as energy is a main driver of European versus US allocation.

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Asset Allocation Watch: Still early innings for US cyclicals?

Asset Allocation Watch: Still early innings for US cyclicals?

While liquidity was on everyone’s lips 6 months ago, the net effects have been somewhat benign. Meanwhile, PMIs and inflation seem to be running the show. It appears that services are weakening coincidently with manufacturing showing strength. Board or aboard cyclicals then?

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Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?

Portfolio Watch: Catching a Chinese cold?

Summer volatility razor, BoJ and Xi’s real estate malaise have all contributed to headwinds for most asset classes. We are still alive and kicking despite a few knocks and bruises. Read here for full context

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Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?

Portfolio Watch: Navigating Crossroads

A relatively strong week this one despite Xi keeps hunting us. The boomer trade has been doing bits along with the curve steepener. But we will probably be making changes soon. Read below for context

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Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?

Portfolio Watch: Steep, steeper, steepest!

The steepening of the USD curve is the overarching market driver and we have thankfully partially rotated our portfolio in the right direction ahead of the move. How do you trade a steeper yield curve across assets? Our weekly portfolio update is out!

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Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?

Portfolio Watch: Surfing the boomer wave

BoJ’s decision is of course the big talking point for markets this week. Our book keeps up despite some impact from Ueda’s decision- but what will it mean and how will we trade it in the coming weeks? Read our view below

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Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?

Portfolio Watch: The Summer Volatility Razor

Volatility has been detrimental to many books this week which too is reflected in some of our positions and it appears that diversification is gaining increased significance given the resurgence of volatility. Traders who are not paying attention here will pay for it involuntarily

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Asset Allocation Watch: Macro Regime Indicator – Introducing our brand new asset allocation model

Asset Allocation Watch: Macro Regime Indicator – Introducing our brand new asset allocation model

Each month we assess the macro environment based on liquidity, inflation and growth models. Our models were right that inflation, growth and liquidity would all drop in June, but for July we see a possible slight uptick in growth, while inflation and liquidity will continue down.

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Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?

Portfolio Watch: Bears & Hawks

With today’s recessionary PMI numbers, hawkish central bank rhetoric and a shift in price action, there are good reasons to believe that positioning might flip from now on, as investors will likely prefer bonds over equities.

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Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?

Portfolio Watch #2 FOMO remains the game in town

Our portfolio is green and we are content with the returns despite a few bad apples in the mix. The market environment is uncertain, and we anticipate increased selling pressure is imminent once the tightening gets going. Risk management and diversification are crucial in this setup. See our weekly performance evaluation for here details

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Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?

Portfolio Watch #1 – Not your rookie market

As we close out our first week with a live portfolio, we are excited to introduce our new weekly watch piece, providing a comprehensive summary of our trading week. Every Friday, we will release this publication, and we extend a warm welcome to you all in this premiere edition!

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