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Portfolio Watch: Trading the next of the rolling melt-ups

Liquidity will improve markedly from 16th of June and onwards, while we continue to see rolling melt-ups in real world assets. We see an increasing risk of a new melt up in commodity space.
2024-05-24
Portfolio watch

Welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch.

We have had another decent week as our short bet on Utilities has started to deliver, while a continued long bet in technology (and ETH) has been the game in town in the risk asset space.

The liquidity trajectory is slightly murky over the next 2-3 weeks before a major reversal from mid-June and onwards as the net issuance pace of T-bills will be ramped up again into July tapping liquidity from the ON RRP along the way.

Unless you are of a very short-term persuasion this leaves a pretty benign environment ahead for risk assets and especially July looks to be a solid return month again. 

Chart 1: USD liquidity profile looks very solid after mid-June

Liquidity will improve markedly from 16th of June and onwards, while we continue to see rolling melt-ups in real world assets. We see an increasing risk of a new melt up in commodity space.

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