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Portfolio Watch: The wheels are coming off in Europe

How do you trade the tight energy supply with increasing consensus in the oil market? We see various interesting proxies and have started to add them to our portfolio.
2023-09-22
Portfolio watch

Happy Friday and welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch where we discuss trade ideas from a risk/reward perspective.

Conclusions up front:
– The wheels are coming off in Europe, but…

The wheels are coming off in Europe
The European PMIs keep weakening, but there is an intra-Eurozone momentum change worth noting. France is now doing WORSE than Germany on a composite level, and the momentum is weakening South of the Alps as well. The notion that Germany is the “sick man” of Europe will wane in coming months as the weakness spreads.

Chart 1: France now doing WORSE than Germany

How do you trade the tight energy supply with increasing consensus in the oil market? We see various interesting proxies and have started to add them to our portfolio.

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