Recession Playbook: Here is how we think the recession will pan out
We have refrained from taking a decisive stance on the recession timing through the year and have generally had the view that recession risks (for the US economy) were overcooked by the economic consensus.
We are now starting to see stars aligning in our framework and expect the US recession to arrive in Q1-2024 with the final confirmation arriving early in Q2-2024.
Here is our recession playbook and how we see markets developing alongside it.
Chart 1: Our recession time-line/playbook