What if the Fed is wrong, we are wrong, and the consensus is wrong? Here’s a look at liquidity, rates, and commodities amidst a macro landscape with a very broad outcome space for the coming 12-18 months.

What if the Fed is wrong, we are wrong, and the consensus is wrong? Here’s a look at liquidity, rates, and commodities amidst a macro landscape with a very broad outcome space for the coming 12-18 months.
The French election risks leave Europe uninvestable from an equity perspective for now, which leaves opportunities ahead in USD markets. We continue to see strong performance in USD liquidity sensitive trades paired with softness in commodities.
On how to trade the rolling melt-up in commodity space relatively speaking..
The strong Chinese GDP numbers were overshadowed by a continued weakness in Asian FX trends. Energy and metals typically continue to perform in such an environment.
Markets will remain on high geopolitical alert this week as we are awaiting whether Israel accepts the “eye for an eye” logic put forward by both Iran and the US. We see moderately upbeat markets ahead.
On the back of the hawkish surprise in the CPI, we find PPI consensus amazingly low ahead of the release later. The resurgence of USD inflation is likely going to impact the reaction function of the ECB even if the outlook is diverging fast.
While we have booked profits in our long oil bets, we are getting increasingly bullish on the broader commodity complex. Especially a couple of metals look extremely interesting here.
The fake business cycle keeps surprising markets and central banks and the volatility in the cyclical components of the economy will likely keep markets trading from one extreme to another in coming years.
Our portfolio cheers on the broadening commodities rally! We delve into the risks and opportunities of this surge, its reflationary impact on strategic allocation, and present our convictions going forward.
The final reflation melt-up may be right in front of us during Q2. Position accordingly.
The sudden melt-up trend in commodities has a late cyclical head fake vibe to it, but commodities and steepeners probably offer the best macro value in Q2. Here is why..
Are we approaching the point in the cycle where commodities start to reflate? We have seen interesting break-outs of Copper, Silver and Oil.
Shipping stocks have not rallied lately despite the optimism in risk markets. Is a peace deal in Gaza a good sign for shipping companies? And how does it impact commodity markets? The latest Shanghai container output data looks bullish! Find the answers here.
Troubles in the Red Sea have started to drag oil prices and freight rate futures higher with a lag, while rate cut expectations stay firm. Are markets too late on the oil story, or is there more upside to catch?
Sticky prices and high growth appears to be the winning combination to bet on, and this week’s data undoubtedly reaffirmed that. Read below for our full take!
The path to 2% has proven to be more difficult than anticipated, and the disinflation-trend is now potentially starting to turn in the US. Are markets positioned accordingly?
The risk aversion theme for 2024 continues as data is starting to go against consensus, and the question for 2024 will be where to find true value in asset markets. A couple of thoughts and charts on that here.
As the US CPI is set to maintain its resilience, several sectors are contending with margin pressure due to the slower decline in costs. In the world of emerging markets, the soft landing appears to be losing steam, running on fumes. Meanwhile, finance ministers are once again in the limelight as 2024 unfolds as a pivotal election year globally
Markets seem to have given up the perfect landing narrative, and the ultra-long positioning in bonds and equities has started to retrace. A more mixed 2024 upcoming?
On the back of a Fed meeting markets have been partying like there is no tomorrow. We assess the recent moves in positioning and reflect on how we see markets move leading into 2024
Financial conditions have eased substantially since the last FOMC meeting in November. Are markets prepared for hawkish rhetoric? We explore the data.
With CFTC data delayed due to Thanksgiving, we turn our attention to fund flows and sentiment data to see how the soft landing narrative is impacting positioning.
Markets have been all about lower yields and a weaker dollar over the past weeks, but positioning data remains pretty upbeat on the greenback.
After today’s soft inflation report from the US, we have a look at how markets are positioned at current junctures. Find out if you have your eggs in the right basket, and what consensus is currently.
Market seems to be all over the place these past trading days and November has thus far both been trick & treat. We are green and have entered new positions. Read our full take below
The recent howler of 30y UST auction made yields spike and has served as a reality check for the brief optimism in emerging markets. But we refuese to concede to the negativity – We illustrate the long-term prospects for Latin America in the new deglobalized order below
The supply side has probably been what’s driven commodities higher in 2023, but how is the supply looking in metals and grains currently given the recent surprising momentum in for example Iron Ore?
A mixed week for us with duration performing, but our equity spreads have taken a beating along with our 1 naked short. We booked some profits and added further exposure in Fixed income. Read below for our full take on the week and how we see the market in coming weeks
The Chinese Stimulus will likely prove to be false flag and Yellen & Powell looks to have killed the USD streak. Read below for our thoughts on it and how we will likely play it
The long awaited stimulus package is here! But it is anything but overwhelming… Read our takeaways here