What if the Fed is wrong, we are wrong, and the consensus is wrong? Here’s a look at liquidity, rates, and commodities amidst a macro landscape with a very broad outcome space for the coming 12-18 months.
Portfolio Watch: Short metals and Europe but long (US) liquidity sensitive assets
The French election risks leave Europe uninvestable from an equity perspective for now, which leaves opportunities ahead in USD markets. We continue to see strong performance in USD liquidity sensitive trades paired with softness in commodities.
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Trade Alert: Going long and short in commodity space
On how to trade the rolling melt-up in commodity space relatively speaking..
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Something for your Espresso: More USD strength is coming!
The strong Chinese GDP numbers were overshadowed by a continued weakness in Asian FX trends. Energy and metals typically continue to perform in such an environment.
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Something for your Espresso: Was it an eye for an eye?
Markets will remain on high geopolitical alert this week as we are awaiting whether Israel accepts the “eye for an eye” logic put forward by both Iran and the US. We see moderately upbeat markets ahead.
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Something for your Espresso: Another input cost SHOCKER upcoming?
On the back of the hawkish surprise in the CPI, we find PPI consensus amazingly low ahead of the release later. The resurgence of USD inflation is likely going to impact the reaction function of the ECB even if the outlook is diverging fast.
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Energy Cable: Melt UP in commodities upcoming?
While we have booked profits in our long oil bets, we are getting increasingly bullish on the broader commodity complex. Especially a couple of metals look extremely interesting here.
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Steno Signals #94 – Trading the FAKE business cycle
The fake business cycle keeps surprising markets and central banks and the volatility in the cyclical components of the economy will likely keep markets trading from one extreme to another in coming years.
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Portfolio Watch: The real world is reflating again
Our portfolio cheers on the broadening commodities rally! We delve into the risks and opportunities of this surge, its reflationary impact on strategic allocation, and present our convictions going forward.
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Trade Alert: Playing the last reflation saloon and NOK technicalities
The final reflation melt-up may be right in front of us during Q2. Position accordingly.
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Something for your Espresso: Last chance reflation saloon?
The sudden melt-up trend in commodities has a late cyclical head fake vibe to it, but commodities and steepeners probably offer the best macro value in Q2. Here is why..
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Something for your Espresso: Time for commodities to shine?
Are we approaching the point in the cycle where commodities start to reflate? We have seen interesting break-outs of Copper, Silver and Oil.
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Commodity & Shipping Watch: Time to get back into the shipping bets?
Shipping stocks have not rallied lately despite the optimism in risk markets. Is a peace deal in Gaza a good sign for shipping companies? And how does it impact commodity markets? The latest Shanghai container output data looks bullish! Find the answers here.
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Positioning Watch – Markets betting on lower rates and higher oil prices
Troubles in the Red Sea have started to drag oil prices and freight rate futures higher with a lag, while rate cut expectations stay firm. Are markets too late on the oil story, or is there more upside to catch?
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Portfolio Watch: Aboard the train but starring at the emergency exit
Sticky prices and high growth appears to be the winning combination to bet on, and this week’s data undoubtedly reaffirmed that. Read below for our full take!
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Positioning Watch – How are markets positioned in inflation?
The path to 2% has proven to be more difficult than anticipated, and the disinflation-trend is now potentially starting to turn in the US. Are markets positioned accordingly?
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Positioning Watch – Where to find value currently
The risk aversion theme for 2024 continues as data is starting to go against consensus, and the question for 2024 will be where to find true value in asset markets. A couple of thoughts and charts on that here.
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EM by EM #38: Inflation returning with a vengeance?
As the US CPI is set to maintain its resilience, several sectors are contending with margin pressure due to the slower decline in costs. In the world of emerging markets, the soft landing appears to be losing steam, running on fumes. Meanwhile, finance ministers are once again in the limelight as 2024 unfolds as a pivotal election year globally
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Positioning Watch – Risk aversion is back?
Markets seem to have given up the perfect landing narrative, and the ultra-long positioning in bonds and equities has started to retrace. A more mixed 2024 upcoming?
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Positioning Watch – Buy everything seems to be consensus
On the back of a Fed meeting markets have been partying like there is no tomorrow. We assess the recent moves in positioning and reflect on how we see markets move leading into 2024
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Positioning Watch – Are markets ready for Powell Wednesday?
Financial conditions have eased substantially since the last FOMC meeting in November. Are markets prepared for hawkish rhetoric? We explore the data.
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Positioning Watch – All about the soft landing narrative
With CFTC data delayed due to Thanksgiving, we turn our attention to fund flows and sentiment data to see how the soft landing narrative is impacting positioning.
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Positioning Watch – Positioning for lower yields and weaker USD
Markets have been all about lower yields and a weaker dollar over the past weeks, but positioning data remains pretty upbeat on the greenback.
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Positioning Watch – The cocktail of heavy logs in both equities and bonds
After today’s soft inflation report from the US, we have a look at how markets are positioned at current junctures. Find out if you have your eggs in the right basket, and what consensus is currently.
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Portfolio Watch: Staying afloat in a Storm of Uncertainty
Market seems to be all over the place these past trading days and November has thus far both been trick & treat. We are green and have entered new positions. Read our full take below
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EM by EM #29: Biden’s party, EM’s hangover & Scholz’s nightmare
The recent howler of 30y UST auction made yields spike and has served as a reality check for the brief optimism in emerging markets. But we refuese to concede to the negativity – We illustrate the long-term prospects for Latin America in the new deglobalized order below
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Inventory Nugget – How are world inventories in metals and grains looking?
The supply side has probably been what’s driven commodities higher in 2023, but how is the supply looking in metals and grains currently given the recent surprising momentum in for example Iron Ore?
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Portfolio Watch: November Bear Market Rally?
A mixed week for us with duration performing, but our equity spreads have taken a beating along with our 1 naked short. We booked some profits and added further exposure in Fixed income. Read below for our full take on the week and how we see the market in coming weeks
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EM by EM #28 The Truth Hidden in Plain Sight
The Chinese Stimulus will likely prove to be false flag and Yellen & Powell looks to have killed the USD streak. Read below for our thoughts on it and how we will likely play it
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EM by EM #27 Not a Bazooka, but a Pumpgun
The long awaited stimulus package is here! But it is anything but overwhelming… Read our takeaways here
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