Filter by Categories
Commodities shipping

Commodity & Shipping Watch: Time to get back into the shipping bets?

Shipping stocks have not rallied lately despite the optimism in risk markets. Is a peace deal in Gaza a good sign for shipping companies? And how does it impact commodity markets? The latest Shanghai container output data looks bullish! Find the answers here.
2024-03-07
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/ulriksimmelholt/" target="_self">Ulrik Simmelholt</a>

Ulrik Simmelholt

0

Commodity returns this year can broadly be broken down into 3 categories. Returns in the futures market, in the spot market and in the spot market with backing from a cartel. Rolling futures, as seen in the BCOM index, hasn’t been particularly fruitful due to among other things roll yields.

Managed money has been net short throughout the year and as opposed to crude oil there is no cartel in broad commodities to defend against paper shorts. Spot markets, on the other hand, have enjoyed the increase in inflation expectations, global growth green shots and luxury of avoiding a negative roll yield.

Hence why CRB is up 3% year-to-date as opposed to BCOM being negative. Finally the returns in crude oil show what happens when you combine the commodity spot market with a cartel. OPEC has been very successful in 2024 in terms of keeping paper shorts away from the market but the question still remains how sustainable this squeeze really is? In the medium to long run properly not.

Chart 1: The spot market is where it happens

Shipping stocks have not rallied lately despite the optimism in risk markets. Is a peace deal in Gaza a good sign for shipping companies? And how does it impact commodity markets? The latest Shanghai container output data looks bullish! Find the answers here.

Get access / Login

0 Comments

STENO RESEARCH IS JOINING REAL VISION

From July 2025, Steno Research is joining Real Vision to create the ultimate macro research product for you!

As a subscriber, this means the following:

Yearly subscriber: For legal reasons, we cannot transfer your pre-paid subscription directly. You need to register with Real Vision and then we’ll transfer your pre-paid subscription quickly afterwards. Simply go to https://www.realvision.com/free and sign up - and then we’ll take care of the rest! We will shut down service of Steno Research on July 31st, so be sure to make the transfer to keep receiving our content.

Already a RV subscriber?
Please check that you are using the same e-mail. If yes, you don't need to do anything. If not, please contact [email protected].

Monthly subscriber: Your current monthly subscription with Steno Research will end during July (31st at the latest). To continue accessing our research (and more), you’ll need to sign up for a Real Vision membership. Check out your options on: https://www.realvision.com/pricing

For Institutional Clients:
- Your access has been moved to our new institutional offering at NowcastIQ.com
- If you haven’t been moved already, please contact [email protected]