The ECB is scared of acting ahead of the Fed, why a substantial dovish surprise is needed in February HICP to bring about a decent probability of spring action from the ECB. Find our updated now-casts here.
***EU Finance Chiefs Seek More Defense Funding, But Question How** While policy makers in Europe are worried about financing in terms of fighting Russian aggression maybe they should start to look at production capacity as well. The backlogs ratio in German weapons and ammunition manufacturing are up by 20 last year alone.
Is Nat Gas suddenly the cheapest macro asset on earth? Natural Gas prices are through the floor, which dynamics have improved in the oil space. Let’s have a look at it.
Container rates have peaked for now, but without progress in the Red Sea, there is a risk of a return of higher rates by the spring-time. The damage for US inflation has likely already been done, but we see signs of exhaustion in the long energy bet.
Last week we were close to writing our obituary on our crude oil long position and this week we are almost back in green. The last few weeks in crude have surely been something!
Freight rates have started to level off, but remember that this is the “soft season” for shipping volumes. From March and onwards, the shipping volumes will accelerate sharply.
Crude oil above USD 80 lasted all but a week and we are now trading in the January range again. Here is our take along with some oil-related news from the week. The structural oil bet is still improving beneath the hood.
The weekly freight rate print just landed with the first negative weekly change in almost two months. Let’s delve into the data.
The Red Sea crisis contagion is spreading to the energy space. With signs of stress emerging in Energy Markets, we have entered a timely long as positioning remains light despite the ongoing Red Sea debacles.
The potential for a soft EUR-flation week paired with spill-overs in the Red Sea leads us to implement a few new trades in the portfolio.
If it quacks and walks like a duck, it probably is a duck. The same can be said about the disinflationary wave in Europe, which got more confirmation with today’s full Ifo report.
Over the last month, we have covered the shipping troubles in the Red Sea along with the potential consequences for markets. As we are of the opinion that this topic is very important we thought that we would post a piece recapping where we are and what to expect going forward.
This week in 5 Things We Watch we are honing in on US vs EUR rates/inflation, China stimulus, Euro PMIs, Japanese equities and the Suez troubles.
The situation in the Red Sea is worsening and it wouldn’t surprise us to see spill-overs to the energy space by now. Here is an update on the situation!
The shipping situation keeps worsening with some early spill-overs to the energy space. It remains to be seen whether tankers will be redirected to the extent seen with containers, but the risk remains elevated.
This week’s 5 things we watch with hot topics. This week we’ll cover US recession talks and financial conditions. We’ll also hone in on both US and European inflation and finally talk rates expectations.
Free article on the issues surrounding OPEC and global crude oil markets!
Eurozone inflation looks uber dovish in the coming months and the ECB looks ready to commence its cutting cycle in the spring. And rightly so given our own forecasts. Looking on the other side of the Summer, however, the picture changes with a set up for another round of inflationary pressures.
We are growing increasingly convinced that we will not see a single print of 2% or lower in the US CPI in this cycle. Despite a cyclical de-acceleration, the sticky components keep the CPI too high and beneath the hood cyclicality is returning.
Things are starting to look a little troublesome for the US economy in the mid-term as re-accelerating inflation and a weakening labor market is no easy cocktail for the Fed. Read more here together with some notes on freight rates, Japan and the new BTC ETF.
There are currently signs of rising supply bottlenecks in both the Suez- and the Panama canal. Good news for shipping companies, but bad news for consumers in 3-4 months from now.
Have Shipping companies suddenly made a deal with the Houthis? It sounds unlikely to us, and we will address why in this Suez Special of our Energy Cable publication.
Freight rates are on the rise fast! How bad is the situation in the Red Sea? More here.
Our demand-based models on oil are through the roof and the demand has been exceptionally strong from a seasonal perspective in December. Is the narrative of a weak energy demand wrong?
Welcome to the last 5 Things We Watch for this year, which we have decided to make a 5 Things We Watch for 2024 with an outlook on key topics for 2024
We take a look at the 2024 outlook in our final EIA watch of the year. Cracks are appearing within the OPEC group and Angola will allegedly leave the cartel.
Oil is suddenly back in fashion on the back of a dovish FOMC meeting and supply disruptions in the Red Sea. Is the oil bet back on? Or is it too early?
We add further duration to the portfolio in a laggard curve!
The oil market remains muted despite record high US demand, but the supply side is not as weak as anticipated, which has even wrongfooted the OPEC group. Meanwhile, mother nature doesn’t play with a long bet in Nat Gas.
Happy Monday to everybody from a cold Copenhagen where we will quickly touch upon the OPEC meeting before we reveal why we are thanking Olaf Scholz.
