Our demand-based models on oil are through the roof and the demand has been exceptionally strong from a seasonal perspective in December. Is the narrative of a weak energy demand wrong?
Welcome to the last 5 Things We Watch for this year, which we have decided to make a 5 Things We Watch for 2024 with an outlook on key topics for 2024
We take a look at the 2024 outlook in our final EIA watch of the year. Cracks are appearing within the OPEC group and Angola will allegedly leave the cartel.
Oil is suddenly back in fashion on the back of a dovish FOMC meeting and supply disruptions in the Red Sea. Is the oil bet back on? Or is it too early?
We add further duration to the portfolio in a laggard curve!
The oil market remains muted despite record high US demand, but the supply side is not as weak as anticipated, which has even wrongfooted the OPEC group. Meanwhile, mother nature doesn’t play with a long bet in Nat Gas.
Happy Monday to everybody from a cold Copenhagen where we will quickly touch upon the OPEC meeting before we reveal why we are thanking Olaf Scholz.
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
Happy Tuesday to everyone from a freezy Copenhagen, where temperatures in Northern Europe finally get to test the natural gas markets. Before we get to that, we first have our OPEC preview.
Today we got the full Ifo report which allows us to refresh our Ifo models and take the temperature of the German economy.
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
OPEC increased the demand forecast and continues to highlight paper market shorts as the reason for the weakness in oil markets. We largely agree but also see signs of exhaustion coming out of Saudi Arabia.
German politicians have agreed to subsidize energy bills for the heavy industry, which will likely lead to an increased demand for a scarce commodity. Is this the right timing to enter long bets in Natural Gas again?
Happy Monday to everybody and welcome back to another Energy Cable. On the back of the last week’s of tension in the Middle East we thought we would do a bit of thought-provoking argumentation for a potential US-Saudi deal which we have dubbed “The Riyadh Accord”.
This week’s 5 Things has a strong focus on Japan and the BOJ while it also touches on the equity market and lends the reader a look at our portfolio.
Your weekly Energy Cable with thoughts on the growing correlations across natural gas and electricity in Europe and a quick JPY take
Inflation is likely going to drop just below 2% in Europe/Germany, but there are signs of bottoming price pressures in the IFO Survey, while the Chemicals sector keeps improving orders/inventory ratios.
A bloodbath in equities, a new re-steepening of the curve and signs of life in the long energy trade again. It sure doesn’t look pretty out there, but will Lagarde and the ECB admit to it? Big day ahead!
The heating season is yet to really turn into a heating season and warm temperatures have wreaked slightly havoc with our Nat Gas bet so far. Beneath the surface, the fundamental bullishness is brewing and our models double down on the positivity!
Horrid scenes and continued unrest in the Middle East with major oil producing nations perhaps getting involved. What are the probable implications for oil, and how about natural gas given the winter ahead and Europe’s dependence?
Happy Wednesday, and welcome back to our 5 Things We Watch, where we as always run through 5 interesting topics in global macro relevant to the current and near-term market actions. We’ll as usual be short and concise, covering what has already happened this week, as well as what will happen next.
Was the entire price drop in the oil price driven by EIA data on flawed assumptions? Will the renewed turmoil in the Middle East revive the oil bet and is the Natural Gas market the new market to watch as an energy bull? Here is your weekly letter on the subjects.
With the AFD becoming the second-largest party in national polls and yesterday’s election successes in Bavaria and Hesse, right-wing populism is on the rise in Europe. Migration plays a crucial role, and we’ve examined its impact on the influx of Ukrainian refugees into Germany. Read the full nugget below.
We have looked at historical macro data to assess how assets perform around and in a recession, and if we are actually heading towards one.
A rising discrepancy between crack spreads in Gasoline and Diesel space is worth noting as we move our attention away from oil to other parts of the energy space to find decent risk/reward.
Hi and welcome to this free post where we wanted to touch upon uranium and nuclear energy since it has been a trending topic for a couple of weeks now. We pose 3 questions which we briefly try to answer in order to give you an idea where we are and what is going on in the uranium and nuclear space.
With today’s release of the total Ifo data from the manufacturing sector we wanted to quickly touch upon the main data points we are looking at. We particularly note that good news in Germany, is now bad news for the EUR, since an uptick in the industry means more gas buying, which in turn means more FX outflow.
Is the oil bull market about to become old hat? We are turning our attention to Natural Gas and Uranium to find value in energy markets. Find out why here!
Both nuclear and oil returns have gone bananas in recent weeks, so it might be time to change focus in energy space? We look at the model evidence across energy asset classes.
