If China truly bounces back, India will sell off further
Out of the Box: Don’t worry about the real rates spread, ECB
We’ll present 3 arguments for the ECB to commence its rate cutting cycle and not be afraid of the Fed and their policy rate decisions.
Energy Cable: Nowcasts hinting that April was a big false flag
We are seeing improving fundamentals in our nowcasts and see the industrial cycle improving in both China and the US through May again. Was the sell-off in oil temporary in April? We are betting so.
Trade Alert: Long crude oil and FSTE
2 new positions added to our portfolio!
Macro Nugget: Freight rates are getting spicy again
Forth straight week of rising freight rates for 40 foot containers!
Macro Nugget: Trump vs Biden
A look at asset markets’ expectation of the upcoming presidential race between Biden and Trump.
FREE MACRO NUGGET: Are PMI numbers garbage post Covid?
With ISM numbers coming out this week here’s a free macro nugget with some reflections on post pandemic PMIs
Free Macro Nugget: Have you looked at the Ifo numbers, Miss Lagarde?
Focus on German industrial production and the Ifo report from last week
Ifo Nugget: Confirmed.. The only inflation you’ll get in Germany is supply driven
The full Ifo report just landed which means another quick Ifo Nugget with the most important charts from this month’s German activity numbers, which overall came in weak. Let’s dive into it.
Free Macro Nugget: EVs are sooo last year
Focus on electric vs combustion engine vehicles.
Energy Cable: Inflation starting to bite equities
The rise in energy prices, the USD wreckingball and the higher-for-longer narrative has finally reached equities, which seems to be taking a bit of a breather here. We take a look at movements in energy and commodity markets once again.
Free Macro Nugget: Cut rates and inflation will go down
Cut rates if you want lower inflation, Powell
Free Macro Nugget: 2 charts for the inflation doves
Free Macro Nugget on 2 charts for the inflation doves.
Energy Cable: Good luck reaching your 2% target, Powell
The reflation will likely continue as long as Powell and his ilk keeps an implicit dovish bias intact. Energy markets will likely remain bid, but the broader commodity story seems more interesting to play than oil at these levels.
The week at a glance: Soft CPI in UK and a BIG positive surprise from China?
Each Monday, we will go through the main events of the upcoming week in a short- and sweet format. Follow along to get our takes on the data surprise of the week!
Trade Alert: Getting out of duration in AUD & EUR
Exiting some suration trades and moving on in the reflation trades
Energy Cable: Melt UP in commodities upcoming?
While we have booked profits in our long oil bets, we are getting increasingly bullish on the broader commodity complex. Especially a couple of metals look extremely interesting here.
Out of the Box: 6 reasons the Fed will be hiking rates in 2024
Another ‘Out of the Box’ with some food for thought on Fed’s rate path and the most un-appreciated risk scenario, namely more hikes.
Energy Cable #63: It is still all eyes on China
Solid numbers out of China over Easter solidifies the commodity case including in Energy. If China is actually moving, commodities remain too cheap.
Something for your Espresso: A bridge over troubled waters
Is the collapse of the Baltimore key bridge a biggie for global macro? Let’s have a look at the numbers ahead of an inflation packed Easter.
Ifo Nugget: What reflation in Germany?
The full Ifo report was released yesterday, and here is the summary with the most important charts from our models. Overall, there is not a lot of fuel to the reflation story in Germany.
Something for your Espresso: From China with love
USDCNH keeps trading with a premium to the USDCNY rate, while discussions are ongoing on whether Japan will face >2% inflation forever from here. Meanwhile, German assets are trading out of sync with fair value.
Something for your Espresso: Head fake reflation incoming!
Powell will allow things to run hot even if inflation is not fading as fast as hoped for. Raising inflation forecasts and keeping three cuts in the projections at the same is REFLATIONARY.
Trade Alert: Booking profits in commodities
We have closed a position. Read which and P&L below
5 Things We Watch: BoJ, Germany, Commodities, Canada, Inflation
Welcome to another edition of 5 things we watch where we take your through the 5 most important things that we have on the radar.
Trade Alert: Booking profits in commodities
We have closed a position. Read which and P&L below
Something for your Espresso: Wen taper?
We suspect that the market will care more about QT tapering than the exact timing of the first rate cut from the Fed, allowing for a decently dovish take-away from the meeting today.
Energy Cable #61: Commodities are breaking out #2!
Commodities have broken out of recent price ranges left, right and center over the past 1-2 weeks and we have timed the entries well. Read along to find our top-picks in Commodity space right now.
China Watch: MAJOR breakouts in several commodities. Is China buying again?
With a break-out from ranges in Copper, Silver and Oil, we look for clues as to whether the Chinese buying is behind the sudden emerging optimism in the commodity space.
5 Things We Watch – US CPI, Japan, China, Germany & Central Banks
The US CPI report came in hotter than expected yesterday, and today’s news on Japanese wage negotiations give the BoJ another reason to tweak the policy rate. Read about the 5 things that we watch this week here.