Welcome to this year’s final EIA watch with a 2024 outlook plus your weekly updates from our EIA models. 

Before we start, we have some breaking news coming out of OPEC. Jornal de Angola reports that Angola will exit OPEC and we see this as the first cracks starting to show within the cartel. Angola has upped its production by 5.74% y/y and stormed out of the OPEC meeting in Vienna this spring when cuts were proposed. It is clear that tensions were high over the last 6 months. In the grand scheme of things Angola accounts for 4.2% of OPEC and 2.6 % of OPEC+ production and thus on that front we are not talking massive amounts of extra potential extra barrels on the market, but it could impact sentiment and other members of the group.

Let’s see if more countries without the balance sheet of the Saudis follow, if cuts are forced upon them. OPEC looks fragile going into 2024 to say the least.  

Chart 1: Angola waves bye bye to MBS