ECB is one French power plant away from readjusting their rate cutting path…
The Drill: The commoditization of AI is here
Our Thoughts on DeepSeek and the Commoditization of AI/GPUs, Plus Trump/Energy and Europe: Is This the Most Bullish Event in Years or a Problem for Nasdaq and NVIDIA? Let’s take a closer look.
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Something for you espresso: Brexit level cakeism from the US administration
Trump really willing to push for tariffs if it means higher inflation?
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Macro Nugget: Growth focus after Trump’s first week
Manufacturing sentiment partying like it is 2021!
Growth Watch: Manufacturing rebounding!
We present our best charts on gorwth from around the globe!
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Macro Nugget: Signs of USD weakness to come?
The rate of change in carry has turned?
The Drill: Strap in for Trump
We look at what has happened and what to expect from Trump during his first week in the Oval Office and how we would position.
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Macro Nugget: It’s the 2021 manufacturing cycle all over again
Strong Philly Manufacturing prints while Non-Manufacturing looks weak
Something for your espresso: No more ‘Cry Wolf’ as Trump threatens with tariffs
A look at MXN and CAD on the back of Trump tariffs announcement.
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Macro Nugget: China is deindustrializing Germany
Germany and the EU must act before it is too late.
Growth Watch: Philly Fed data through the roof! Here is how to trade it!
On the back of an uber-bullish Philly Fed Manufacturing print, we take a look at the sensitivities of assets to a boom in the manufacturing economy.
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Macro Nugget: Housing backlogs back to pre-pandemic levels
Will 7% mortgage rates start to be felt in construction payrolls?
The Drill: What if Trump is not bluffing ahead of next week?
We see pockets of overbought conditions in energy markets ahead of Trump’s inauguration week. The market appears to have accepted Trump’s ‘bluff’ as the base case for the coming week, raising the question of whether the risk/reward balance is weak.
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Something with your espresso: BoJ will need to hike
BoJ will likely have to react to inflationary pressures due to Fed hawkishness and wage and price growth.
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Macro Nugget: More pressure for the BoJ to hike
Wages and rising US yield will put pressure on the BoJ
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Macro Nugget: A weekend of spiking US inflation fears?
Crude oil and natural gas about to rise in the US?
Here are the best charts on inflation in 2025
We have complied a chart deck with our best charts on inflation and what to look out for in macro in 2025
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Macro Nugget: Four charts on inflation ahead of NFP
Prior to today’s NFP number we have four charts on inflation for 2025.
Macro Nugget: Will Trump be all talk and no action?
Focus on Trump’s tough trade talks and if he’ll really back them up
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The drill: It’s an omnishambles in the tariff talks
Trump’s tariffs talks have now been called a bluff but for how long? Get your popcorn out and have your broker on speed dial because the next year will be 2017 on steroids.
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Something for your espresso: Markets deeming the tariff talks by Trump a bluff
We are back with dailys in the new year and start by looking at the crazy action yesterday afternoon after the tariffs news broke.
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Macro Nugget: Good luck, Elon & Vivek
The DOGE bros think cutting government spending will be easy, but they might need to think again…
Week at a Glance – The most important NFP print of them all?
We go into the year long equities, while being more neutral on US Fixed Income and the dollar. What are the key events to watch this week?
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Macro Nugget: A trade idea to begin the new year
More US cuts for 2025 than anticipated by many?
Christmas at a Glance – More soft surprises from the US?
We continue to observe soft surprises from the US economy, while momentum in China is outright collapsing according to our models. Below is the full Christmas overview of the economic calendar, along with guidance on how to trade and navigate it effectively.
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Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
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Something for your Espresso: Anglo-Saxon Macro Surprises Down
Plus thoughts on the Vix and the upcoming government shutdown drama in the US
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Macro Nugget: Good luck with your projection, Powell
Fed is projecting unemployment rate at 4.3% in 2025
Something for your Espresso: Panic before ATHs in January?
While Powell spooked positioning with the biggest relative VAR shock since March 2020, an influx of liquidity is just around the corner. Perhaps Powell has actually lowered the bar for easing in 2025 by hawking up the projections—September in reverse?
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Macro Nugget: Germany nose diving into a 2025 recession
Latest Ifo numbers out of Germany look very grim