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Portfolio Watch: No Quarter and No Surrender

Portfolio Watch: No Quarter and No Surrender

The EIA report indicates demand drop, Non-farm payroll signals a soft landing, and we’ve taken a spread trade loss. We’re in challenging waters. How should we position ourselves, and how are we doing? Read our weekly Portfolio review below

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EM by EM #24 Tightening the noose on EM

EM BY EM #17 China: Real Estate Complex and the “phony” stimulus

In 2021, I took a bearish position in the Chinese real estate market. However, the scale of the repercussions stemming from the ongoing deleveraging process in Chinese real estate has raised our concerns. Despite this, we believe that the CCP will likely need to intervene in the near term to address the situation

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5 Things That Could Wrongfoot Consensus in 2024

5 Things We Watch – The Equity Rally, the Chinese consumption problem, Consumers vs Corporates, 20/21 reversed?, MBS and the Fed

The equity rally continues, Xi is in the middle of structural issues, house lending is falling off a cliff in EZ and inflation is waning fast. Read more about the 5 things that we watch currently in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’.

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Portfolio Watch: No Quarter and No Surrender

Portfolio Watch #2 FOMO remains the game in town

Our portfolio is green and we are content with the returns despite a few bad apples in the mix. The market environment is uncertain, and we anticipate increased selling pressure is imminent once the tightening gets going. Risk management and diversification are crucial in this setup. See our weekly performance evaluation for here details

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European Deposits: US turmoil on tour?

European Deposits: US turmoil on tour?

Several US regional banks fell victim to the waning confidence from depositors who ultimately pulled the plug. Are European banks really safeguarded by better legislation, or are we taking comfort in a false sense of security?

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Something for your Espresso: If you SLOOS, you lose

Something for your Espresso: Peak EUR optimism and credit contraction confirmed?

Several indicators are starting to roll over in Europe, which may be at odds at with the current positioning in markets. Meanwhile, the loan officer survey continued to tighten, but not to alarming levels. The demand side of the credit equation is doing much worse than the supply side.

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Something for your Espresso: If you SLOOS, you lose

Something for your Espresso: Lagarde the flip-flopper

No one really knows what the ECB intends to do after the flip-flopping yesterday, but even in Europe it is probably safe to say that we are swiftly edging closer to the peak of this hiking cycle. Meanwhile, evidence gathers in USD markets that the Fed should move with a cut next.

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Money Watch: Your favorite liquidity proxy is about to become drier than a Martini

Money Watch: Your favorite liquidity proxy is about to become drier than a Martini

The banking-storm has calmed down a bit and the small banks’ share of total deposits has regained some territory in recent weeks. However, if fixed income losses continue to weigh down on balance sheets, then we cannot rule out more stories of banks in trouble. For now though, it would seem the FED intervention has idled the turmoil.

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CRE Watch: Illiquid trouble stuck on the books

CRE Watch: Illiquid trouble stuck on the books

As the banking stress has waned in news value, commercial real estate has taken over the baton. In this article, we’ll try and sort fact from fiction and wisen up on what is really moving beneath the surface.

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Japan Watch: The Flight Back Home

Japan Watch: The Flight Back Home

Japan remains a MUST watch as a risk taker in the West. With the potential scrapping of the YCC policy and the recent recall of capital to domestic markets, could this be a potential time bomb for Western markets? Here is how we monitor the situation.

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5 Things That Could Wrongfoot Consensus in 2024

5 Things We Watch: The BTFP, US and EU Deposit Flights, Credit Tightening, and The FFR

The recent turbulence in the banking system has been for the history books. It may have cost the lives of some banks on both sides of the pond, but has the situation finally dialed down? We turn to our timeliest gauges on the deposit flight crisis and weigh up how to position for it.

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China Week: The reopening play vol 2

China Week: The reopening play vol 2

The abiding tale of a Chinese reopening has been about as labile as pundits’ conviction of a soft landing. In fact the two may very well be tightly correlated. Now, it seems data has finally arrived to firmly lay to rest the debate whether a reopening would show. What better time then to unwrap and examine the implications?

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