The Bank of Japan is unlikely to move the needle, if the Fed cuts rates. It is now a relative game between Ueda and Powell. Meanwhile markets are pricing a growing inflation divergence in G10 space.
Geopolitics and fiscal excess are fueling price pressures in global macro. But there’s one actor that could combine the two and undermine the inflationary momentum
The USD opened firmer against Asian FX after the Taiwanese elections, while China refrained from cutting the MLF rate. This week, the UK CPI report will be important.
The upcoming Taiwan election is just one chapter in the larger narrative of US-Sino relations, which is poised to return to the forefront of financial markets in the 2024 US election year. Will Taipei further contribute to the rising tension?
We, just like Goldman Sachs and many others, have been caught off guard in China over the past year. Here’s why
With investor sentiment through the floor in China, we take a look at the policy tool kit for 2024. Is China set for a rebound or will the sentiment remain stuck in the abyss?
After tonight’s press conference, any doubt about who is driving monetary policy should be dispelled. Powell appears to be allowing the market to dictate and is hesitant to provide significant guidance, in stark contrast to Xi and China, which seem somewhat immobilized yet hesitant to acknowledge reality
The COP28 nuclear treaty is the latest chapter in the story about the U.S.-China weapons race in clean tech.
The USD continues to weaken from the morning after a Chinese liquidity injection. Cyclical tailwinds continue despite very dire forward-looking indicators on Western consumption into 2024.
The duration scare is back after a weak 30yr auction. We are yet to enter a home-run environment for USD durationistas, but a flatter curve may be on the cards until the December FOMC-meeting.
The recent howler of 30y UST auction made yields spike and has served as a reality check for the brief optimism in emerging markets. But we refuese to concede to the negativity – We illustrate the long-term prospects for Latin America in the new deglobalized order below
The Chinese Stimulus will likely prove to be false flag and Yellen & Powell looks to have killed the USD streak. Read below for our thoughts on it and how we will likely play it
The long awaited stimulus package is here! But it is anything but overwhelming… Read our takeaways here
Are we in a calm before the storm is unleashed on Gaza? We deliver answers on three key geopolitical questions.
It is increasingly impossible to dissect what is going on in financial markets from what is taking place on the Geopolitical scene. Read below for our full take on the latest events
This past week has been historical for all the wrong reasons. But could the horror taking place in the Middle East be the last nail in the Coffin for US economic overperformance?
BoJ likely intervened yesterday for the first time in a year, the American labor market looks stronger than feared and PBoC is looking to cope with domestic capital flights. Read more in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’.
Despite communicating to cure the CNY to prevent capital flights, the PBoC is likely going to allow the exchange rate to float even higher than now to boost foreign investments, which is the only medicine that can cure the Chinese economic disease.
FED is pausing but EM’s are already fed up and the dynamics of the 2022-trade remains our frame of guidance. But what could turn the table?
The ECB seems closer to softening up than the Fed even if they delivered a hike yesterday. An almost explicit pause was promised in the written statement. ECB pricing for 2024 looks ODD compared to Fed pricing still.
7.30 was the line in the sand but can the Chinese defend their thench? We find it unlikely. But the battleground is not a safe place yet
Energy keeps performing against all peers and it seems like positioning is still underweight despite the recent bullishness. European positioning is getting short, but data keeps backing up that view.
Rhetorical intervention in JPY and CNY helped risk assets and high beta stocks perform yesterday, but is the stabilization sustainable or still fundamentally challenged? We lean towards the latter.
Kind of a shocker for markets with weakness in Chinese Services despite a weekend of benign news. The reopening impulse in Services is fading, which shows how important it is to stabilize Construction/Manufacturing.
President Biden flies to South Asia on a charm offensive. But what can he accomplish and what will the Chinese do?
The EURUSD reversal on the back of hot inflation in Europe was a surprising move, but one we fancy. The Chinese stabilization is walking a tightrope despite efforts from the authorities to prop up CNY asset values.
Markets seem to perceive EUR-flation as stickier than the USD-flation. We find the assessment unwarranted but also admittedly have to see it as a sign of positioning.
‘When China sneezes the West catches a cold’. We’ve said that before, but who is really most reliant on a well-functioning Chinese economy? Europe is now clearly the next shoe to drop. Could long cyclical Asia vs short Cyclical Europe be a strong RV trade?
Will the Jay-Man alleviate some of the pressures on the PBoC at Jackson Hole? And will the ECB strike a different tone than the Fed?
USDCNH above or below 7.20 changes the global macro regime and leads to a rotation in case it continues. Are you prepared accordingly?
