The PBoC rate cuts are not a surprise to us as the pressures facing China are intensifying. But where does it leave monetary policy going forward?
I think Biden’s executive order on investment screening is actually a good sign for US-China relations and a part of the ongoing “mini-detente”. Read why!
Tune in to hear all about Country Garden and the outlook for China
The Chinese economy is flirting with a deflationary spiral, but Xi is so far sticking to his New China Playbook where long-term economic transformation takes precedence over double-digit growth in the short-term. But as bad numbers rain down over the Chinese economy, rumours of an upcoming stimulus package intensifies.
Things are starting to look worse for China just as everyone started to sense that a rebound might have been on the menu. Real estate is turning outright bearish as we speak, but will China continue to be the West’s manufacturing hub?
Focus is back on China with issues in the trust industries. Country Garden looks increasingly like an Evergrande 2.0 case but global markets are not overly worried. Should they be? After all, there is a Lehman in China almost yearly.
Which assets will be on the move if the Chinese RE meltdown continues on Monday? We have gathered the empirical evidence in this short but data-heavy piece. Best of luck for trading during the week ahead!
Either the commodity market is 100% wrong or else China is amidst a rebound. What does that mean for the hopes of getting inflation back to target? And will it impact the yield curve? Here are the three most important questions for investors right now!
Ahead of the CPI release tomorrow we zoom out to provide you with the bigger picture and what to watch out for in global macro over the next weeks.
Nothing out of China supports the China bulls and the bears are loud again this morning, but is the data now getting bad enough for the CCP to put the pedal to the metal? Meanwhile the BoJ is caught between a rock and a hard place.
Commodities gain even on days where they face obstacles such as a stronger USD and luke-warm manufacturing data. This is a strong signal that supply is back in the driver’s seat of commodity markets after a few quarters of demand driven price action.
We have been bullish on Brazil for months and got the market and timing right. But what about Brazilian stocks? Could they prove to be a buy here?
We are on CPI alert from the UK this week as the price pressures in the UK are seen as a harbinger for global sticky service inflation developments. If the UK CPI finally starts mirroring the PPI, we may get a piece of positive disinflationary news for global markets?
We are back up on the week having forecasted the CPI record better than the street but contrary to the prevailing sentiment we think this juncture may prove a little counterintuitive
Many have profited from MXN carry in the first half of 2023. But is there more left to squeeze out or is it running on fumes? We give our take here and assess the structural patterns at play in Mexico in relation to recent performance and the geopolitical climate.
The equity rally continues, Xi is in the middle of structural issues, house lending is falling off a cliff in EZ and inflation is waning fast. Read more about the 5 things that we watch currently in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’.
We are back to the good old discussion on whether eight straight months of manufacturing contraction equals a recession or not. The jury is still out, and equity markets have not received the memo yet in case. The ISM Services will be a guiding star, but not a decisive one.
Nikkei at 33-year highs again this morning as the melt-up continues. Falling inflation outpaces mediocre liquidity -and growth outlooks, which goes to show how a rapid disinflation can be seen as manna from heaven initially.
The West sent checks, while China focused on supply-side policies in response to Covid. But what will Beijing do now?
As a new addition to our editorial, I will now provide a monthly overview of emerging markets, taking a step back from the intricacies and offering a broader perspective. The purpose of this feature is to outline our current positioning within the market cycle and highlight the key factors we are monitoring surrounding EM.
Incentives will matter a lot in coming weeks and months if the Fed has actually paused. Interest rate volatility is likely to come down, which mechanically leads to increased risk appetite.
The ECB members agree on a hike in July, but September is still in doubt after what may have been the most hilarious update to staff projections in recent years. Rear-view mirror policy-making continues.
The inflation report was a mixed bag of goodies, but good enough for the melt up to continue! The “Powell-flation” indicator points to a pause from the Fed this afternoon, which is likely to emphasize the MELT UP for now.
The market is now clearly starting to price in a soft inflation number from the US today. The inflation report better deliver or else the market is in for a rude awakening.
The market is now clearly starting to price in a soft inflation number from the US today. The inflation report better deliver or else the market is in for a rude awakening.
In this current cycle, India has emerged as a favorite among emerging market investors. But are we seeing a bubble similar to Japan in the 1980s? Or will India be successful in replicating the success of China? While we maintain a positive outlook – India counterintuitively is not cheap.
China’s export/import activity is telling for the global economy and commodities remain a sell. Meanwhile, the TRY is getting annihilated despite Erdogan’s attempts to restore economic credibility.
When headline inflation wanes fast, real wages grow, while corporate profits shrink. This is now the base case for H2-2023 while Chinese and Turkish political developments MUST be watched from a macro perspective. Here is why!
Was it too early to burry the Chinese rebound? Manufacturing is now showing signs of life. Meanwhile, the FDIC sounds worried about the health of the US banking system in their quarterly report. Expect a stinker in the ISM Manufacturing report today.
As we close out our first week with a live portfolio, we are excited to introduce our new weekly watch piece, providing a comprehensive summary of our trading week. Every Friday, we will release this publication, and we extend a warm welcome to you all in this premiere edition!
