Chris Waller hinted of a twist to the QE operations, which will likely impact the yield curve in the US. Will the Twist operation support the procyclical trends already seen?
EM by EM #43: Rand’s Reckoning?
The latest US CPI data clearly indicates that inflation in the US is not yet defeated. With interest rate cuts anticipated further down the line here is our perspective on EM’s
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Portfolio Watch: NVDA or Bust?
US tech has been our saving grace, and we’re reaching a point where it’s legitimate to ask if there’s any point in doing anything other than buying NVDA?
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EM by EM #42 China could do with a cold Turkey
While all the hype in EM is about China these days, we are healthy skeptics. We’d like to see Beijing adopt a more structural approach to truly win us over, similar to what they’re doing in Turkey
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Portfolio Watch: Riding a Rollercoaster
Manic price action across the board this week and everything looks up in the air. We are still alive and kicking despite the volatility
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Portfolio Watch: Aboard the train but starring at the emergency exit
Sticky prices and high growth appears to be the winning combination to bet on, and this week’s data undoubtedly reaffirmed that. Read below for our full take!
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Portfolio Watch: The Yellen Put
Powell had his fun in December and now Yellen is preparing her next move. Here is how we play it
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Portfolio Watch: Peak Dovishness & more liquidity?
While we’ve persistently underscored the risks of intensifying conflicts in the Middle East and enduring inflation in the US, it’s evident that politics serves as the unifying factor behind both. Read how we are playing this environment below!
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EM by EM #38: Inflation returning with a vengeance?
As the US CPI is set to maintain its resilience, several sectors are contending with margin pressure due to the slower decline in costs. In the world of emerging markets, the soft landing appears to be losing steam, running on fumes. Meanwhile, finance ministers are once again in the limelight as 2024 unfolds as a pivotal election year globally
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Positioning Watch – Risk aversion is back?
Markets seem to have given up the perfect landing narrative, and the ultra-long positioning in bonds and equities has started to retrace. A more mixed 2024 upcoming?
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Positioning Watch – Buying bonds is the biggest consensus bet
We have a last look at CFTC data to dissect how investors are positioned across asset classes going into 2024. Everyone and their mother is long bonds. Is it a worrying signal? Enjoy!
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EM by EM #36: What Goldman got wrong about China in 2023
We, just like Goldman Sachs and many others, have been caught off guard in China over the past year. Here’s why
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Portfolio Watch: Liquidity the name of the Game
With Central bank bonanza week in the rearview mirror, we reflect on the state of current pricing and reveal how we like to be positioned. Read our full Portfolio Watch below!
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EM by EM #34: Xi’s whip and Powell’s kneeling
After tonight’s press conference, any doubt about who is driving monetary policy should be dispelled. Powell appears to be allowing the market to dictate and is hesitant to provide significant guidance, in stark contrast to Xi and China, which seem somewhat immobilized yet hesitant to acknowledge reality
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5 (+1) Central Banks We Watch – Fed, ECB, BoE, Norge’s Bank, BoJ & BCB
With central banks on duty again this week, we share our thoughts on rate decisions, updated projections and how to play it, before the meetings. Enjoy
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Trade Alert: A defensive yet cyclical tilt
We see cyclicality as overcooked in equity space, but find ways to exploit the stretched positioning.
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EM by EM #33: Early Hikers = Early Steepeners?
Forward curves continue to trend lower in the US and Eurozone. The early adopters are leading the way, but perhaps Yellen’s spending spree will pose another challenge for her EM colleagues. We have taken a look at potential receiver/steepener cases in EM space.
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Trade Alert: Switching duration bet
We book a 13.7% profit in our EUR duration bet and see better risk/reward in another curve!
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Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?
We did get a tad wrongfooted today on our ISM prediction. Despite having seen some decent returns lately the print works against our December call despite Powell doing his to keep it alive. Read our full take below
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EM by EM #32: Keep calm & Carry Lira?
Turkey is teetering on the edge of normalization, but the Lira’s stability remains in jeopardy as Erdogan manages a difficult situation, albeit from a reasonably advantageous position.
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Portfolio Watch: The last dance?
We have taken the unpopular decision of being net long USD and Oil after a massive sell-off. Read our reasoning below
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Positioning Watch: Prepared for a Short Squeeze?
Last week’s rally was truly remarkable, especially considering the months of hardship that most assets endured prior. Could this be the long-awaited revenge of the longs, with short covering poised to dominate the price action in the days ahead? Dive into our analysis below to find out.
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Portfolio Watch: November Bear Market Rally?
A mixed week for us with duration performing, but our equity spreads have taken a beating along with our 1 naked short. We booked some profits and added further exposure in Fixed income. Read below for our full take on the week and how we see the market in coming weeks
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Positioning Watch: Who blinks first?
These days, everything seems to be in motion, but not all at the same pace of change. Dive into our inaugural Monday edition of Positioning Watch below to discern the disparities
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EM by EM #27 Not a Bazooka, but a Pumpgun
The long awaited stimulus package is here! But it is anything but overwhelming… Read our takeaways here
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Trade Alert: Dipping our toes in Europe
We anticipate that the economic cycle will defy current market expectations in Europe. Read below to see how we place our chips
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Positioning Watch: Shifting Gears without Panic
A volatile week with plenty on the plate for investors. Biden’s push for war funding while Capitol Hill remains in gridlock. How are the bets stacking up? Dive into our weekly positioning watch below to find out
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US Treasury Watch: An opportunity of a decade or still the pain trade?
Treasuries have tumbled as 10- and 30-year yields touched their highest in 16 years. Meanwhile, the US Dollar keeps steaming ahead. Is now a golden opportunity for buying bonds or will supply surmount demand, and can the USD extend its streak of strength?
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5 Things We Watch: BoJ, JPY & CNY, Monetary trends, UST selloff & Biden’s visit in Israel
While tension keeps mounting in the Middle East, we’ve decided to broaden the global macro-horizon. From rising pressures in Japanese policy and the preceding Asian currencies to monetary trends in EUR and USD, and everything in between. We break down this week’s most noteworthy developments.
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Positioning Watch: Seeking Shelter in the Fog of War
In the wake of this tragic situation that is still unfolding, investors are grappling with the need to understand and navigate the turmoil. See our main Positioning takeaways here
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