Positioning Watch – Buying bonds is the biggest consensus bet
Happy New Year to all of you who are reading along! Welcome back to the first 2024 edition of our weekly positioning watch, where we as always try to give you updates on what’s going on with positioning data, flows and sentiment.
Today we’ll have a short look at what CFTC data points tell us about 2024 positioning across asset classes, which is a bag of mixed goodies to say the least. Equity and bond positioning looks very bullish still and the JPY – which has been the most hated currency on earth in both 2022 and 2023 – is seemingly crawling back into bullish territory positioning wise on the back of hawkish rumors coming out of the BoJ, while other low-yielding currencies like the Franc are also gaining territory amongst traders and institutions. In the commodity space, precious metals look like the new fan-favorites with gold taking the charge, while oil is not looking too pretty from a positioning perspective.
But without further ado, let’s jump straight into the data and dissect positioning flows, asset class by asset class:
We have a last look at CFTC data to dissect how investors are positioned across asset classes going into 2024. Everyone and their mother is long bonds. Is it a worrying signal? Enjoy!