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Macro Nugget: Trump vs Biden

A look at asset markets' expectation of the upcoming presidential race between Biden and Trump.
2024-05-06
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/ulriksimmelholt/" target="_self">Ulrik Simmelholt</a>

Ulrik Simmelholt

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We have compiled assets across equities, FX and commodities into a Trump and Biden basket, with each basket containing assets that we believe are set to gain from either Trump or Biden. YTD Trump is in the lead and well in the green while Biden is bleeding. While asset markets are very bearish on Biden betting markets have now flipped to favouring Biden. Let’s see if the president can turn things around in the coming weeks with important negotiations in the Middle East with potentially huge implications for the stickiness of global inflation, which has been a wrench the Biden’s reelection works. 

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