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Macro Nugget: Why India is the main loser if China rebounds

If China truly bounces back, India will sell off further

India has been mostly on the receiving end of funds fleeing China in benchmark EM allocations and we therefore once again quietly remind our readers that a Chinese comeback is equal to a sell-off in India.

The India vs China correlation/beta has turned negative twice in recent years. First when the reopening trade was on in late 2022 / early 2023 and now again with the recovery/stimulus trade ongoing.

If China truly rebounds, India is the main loser.



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