Happy Wednesday, and welcome back to our weekly edition of 5 Things We Watch, where we take you through the 5 things we are currently keeping an eye on in the global macro landscape.
Out of the Box #17 How would US exceptionalism flip the table for the RoW?
Global trade is shifting and the US economy is still going strong but the dynamics are changing as are the times. How will global macro likely change as a result?
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UK Watch – Are UK assets a go or a nogo?
The UK has received some attention throughout the current economic cycle as they try to combat weakening growth together with inflation way above BoE’s target. Is now the time to buy UK assets, or is it still a nogo? We’ve run the numbers.
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5 Things We Watch – EU Inflation, US Labor Market, European Money Growth, UK Stagflation & IFO
The doves are back after yesterday’s job openings data which signaled a labor market cooling off, allowing consensus to favor a pause in September. As always, there are plenty of things to dive into in this week’s edition.
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Something for your Espresso: USDCNY is now the global bellwether (again)
The panic will subside if the PBoC manages to defend the 7.30 handle in USDCNY. Could we reach “peak China panic” during today’s trading? We look forward to it alongside the FOMC meeting minutes in our morning report.
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Something for your Espresso: A pause with a truckload of ifs
The RBA kept the pause intact despite markets tilting towards a hike and it raises questions ahead of the BoE on Thursday. Is growth back as the driver of central banks? Meanwhile, credit surveys continue to disappoint.
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Something for your Espresso: When UK inflation turns into the most important key figure on earth
We are on CPI alert from the UK this week as the price pressures in the UK are seen as a harbinger for global sticky service inflation developments. If the UK CPI finally starts mirroring the PPI, we may get a piece of positive disinflationary news for global markets?
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Inflation Watch: Why Norway and the UK are the odd ones out on inflation
On the back of the first truly soft inflation report from the US, we take a look at the inflation regimes across all major countries and find Norway and the UK to be the odd ones out. Paying GBP and NOK rates may still make a lot of sense.
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Something for your Espresso: Might need a Bailey in the Espresso this morning..
The Bank of England is caught between a rock and a hard place, and it may be prudent to pour a bit of Bailey in the Espresso for the committee this morning. A 50 bp hike would signal panic, while delivering 25 bp risks jeopardizing the GBP.
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Something for your Espresso: Ooooops, there goes the service sector
The Philly Fed NBOS survey revealed a weakening service sector for the first time in this cycle. Is this the final shoe to drop? The UK meanwhile remains the laggard on inflation.
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Something for your Espresso: Don’t count on Britain leading the neighbours into the abyss
After a shocking CPI report from the UK, one may ponder whether British exceptionalism carries the day or whether we have more price pain in store for the continent. We hold our ground and remain in the “CPI is deaccelerating fast” camp
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Europolitics Watch #1 – The Big Breturn??
Fair warning: anyone believing that the UK is approaching more EU alignment has grossly underestimated the depths of mutual animosity and distrust that’s currently splitting the Tories from within
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Steno Signals #19 – 1, 2, 3, Central bank panic
Is BoE the patient zero in the fight against bond vigilantes? More panic could be upcoming from other central banks soon as real rates are shooting for the stars
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