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UK Inflation Watch: A dovish surprise upcoming

UK Inflation Watch: A dovish surprise upcoming

The early consensus for UK inflation next week looks relatively hot given typically benign patterns in March, which are likely underpinned by the Early easter timing. We see a downside surprise of roughly 10-12 bps to consensus.

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UK Inflation Watch: A dovish surprise upcoming

UK CPI Watch – A deflationary shock?

Markets are expecting a re-acceleration in November’s inflation number tomorrow with expectations at 0.1% vs 0.0% in October. What do our models tell us, and what should we expect? Our thoughts and findings here.

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UK Inflation Watch: A dovish surprise upcoming

UK Watch – Are UK assets a go or a nogo?

The UK has received some attention throughout the current economic cycle as they try to combat weakening growth together with inflation way above BoE’s target. Is now the time to buy UK assets, or is it still a nogo? We’ve run the numbers.

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5 Things We Watch – UK Rates, OPEC, US Manufacturing, ECB & Portfolio

5 Things We Watch – EU Inflation, US Labor Market, European Money Growth, UK Stagflation & IFO

The doves are back after yesterday’s job openings data which signaled a labor market cooling off, allowing consensus to favor a pause in September. As always, there are plenty of things to dive into in this week’s edition.

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Something for your Espresso: The weather decides whether we should be scared..

Something for your Espresso: When UK inflation turns into the most important key figure on earth

We are on CPI alert from the UK this week as the price pressures in the UK are seen as a harbinger for global sticky service inflation developments. If the UK CPI finally starts mirroring the PPI, we may get a piece of positive disinflationary news for global markets?

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Europolitics Watch #1 – The Big Breturn??

Europolitics Watch #1 – The Big Breturn??

Fair warning: anyone believing that the UK is approaching more EU alignment has grossly underestimated the depths of mutual animosity and distrust that’s currently splitting the Tories from within

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