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Something for your Espresso: Smack dab at our forecast

UK inflation printed almost exactly smack dab at our forecast. European inflation is waning faster than US inflation, which ought to be reflected in relative market pricing soon.
2023-12-20

Morning from Europe!

Our inflation forecast for the UK proved to be spot on and we have had an extremely strong track through the month with our black month assessments and services regressions on inflation numbers. We have probably been the most accurate inflation forecasters on earth in November/December.

Both core inflation- and headline inflation declined 0.23% on the month, which means that the sticky part of the basket did the heavy lifting in November. A very dovish signal for the BoE.

UK Services printed at -0.15% (smack dab at our forecast), Recreation and Culture and Clothing and Footwear down were both down 0.3-0.4%-points as well. Very very close to our predictions on a category by category basis.

Chart 1: UK CPI

 

UK inflation printed almost exactly smack dab at our forecast. European inflation is waning faster than US inflation, which ought to be reflected in relative market pricing soon.

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