This week, we’ve been closely monitoring the reverse bullwhip effect – where people who stocked up on goods during the “stay at home” COVID era are now shifting their focus towards services. We expect this divergence to level out in the near future, with services returning to their usual levels and manufacturing benefiting from a slight tailwind in the short term. We believe it’s essential to delve deeper into how this trend influences the global economy and how our contrarian perspective translates into actionable trades

If we quickly glimpse at Global PMI’s the patterns are slightly more optimistic on the Manufacturing front whilst Services are generally weakening- especially the latter in decline here is rather explicit in the Eurozone.

Chart 1: Global PMI’s