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Portfolio Watch: Cracks are appearing in the lagging cycle

Portfolio Watch: Cracks are appearing in the lagging cycle

Retail sales have once again alleviated immediate recession fears, but signs of cracks are appearing in sectors that typically lag the business cycle, including construction. Consumers remain concerned about the economic situation. Bonds are holding steady for now.

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Portfolio Watch: Cracks are appearing in the lagging cycle

Portfolio Watch – What can we trade in this weak labor environment?

Recession chitters are certainly running the headlines after yesterday’s NFP report, which was not at all what markets were hoping for a few weeks back. September pricing is now showing 70% probability of a 50 bps cut, and people are starting to pile into recession bets. Our allocation thoughts here.

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Portfolio Watch: Cracks are appearing in the lagging cycle

Portfolio Watch: Here comes the metals meltdown..

It’s been a muddy July, not only weather-wise, but also in markets. The signs of an equity rotation, the turning tide in USDJPY, the metals volatility & softer rates probably align. Maybe the stars are finally gearing up for a risk-friendly 4-6 weeks upcoming?

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Something for your Espresso: Wen recession?

Something for your Espresso: Wen recession?

The US economy is accelerating, and various indicators have clearly bottomed out already. The question is if prices will accelerate alongside the rebound in activity and whether the rates market is still wrong.

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Something for your Espresso: Wen recession?

Something for your Espresso: Bye bye Oprahnomics?

The IRA has saved the US from entering a recession alongside peers this year. If the appropriations negotiations this week lead to a bye bye to Oprahnomics, then we consider a recession a done deal for 2024. Buckle up!

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