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Something for your Espresso: Wen recession?

Something for your Espresso: Wen recession?

The US economy is accelerating, and various indicators have clearly bottomed out already. The question is if prices will accelerate alongside the rebound in activity and whether the rates market is still wrong.

Something for your Espresso: Wen recession?

Something for your Espresso: Bye bye Oprahnomics?

The IRA has saved the US from entering a recession alongside peers this year. If the appropriations negotiations this week lead to a bye bye to Oprahnomics, then we consider a recession a done deal for 2024. Buckle up!

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Steno Signals #75 – The 2007/2008 playbook is useful again

Steno Signals #56 – The business cycle that everyone misunderstood! Here is why..

Positioning and price patterns reveal that the pain trade is higher rates- and higher equities, while the recession is slowly but surely being called off by the consensus. Here are four reasons why everyone misunderstood the recession risk and why it is still alive…

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Positioning Watch: Is the bond market plain wrong?

Positioning Watch: Is the bond market plain wrong?

While commodities traders have positioned themselves for the inevitable recession, some equities and FX are living their own lives, celebrating the recent debt ceiling optimism and better than expected GDP numbers. Find out if you have chosen the correct bets in this week’s edition.

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US Equity Watch: A rotations game

US Equity Watch: A rotations game

Areas of the economy are showing increasingly worrying tendencies, and some are outright caving in. Ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, we decided to take a closer look at the state of US equities and whether the defensive rotation was due – or if one were better off leaving the table entirely…

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Out of the Box #23: Why the Treasury undershoots actual issuance needs

Out of the box #2: Back to austerity. Euro sovereign crisis vol 2?

The hardships brought about by Covid and the Ukraine war initially fostered political unity across Europe. In this article however, I will argue that fragmentation may soon regain prominence as liquidity diminishes, labor markets weaken, and governments face the need to implement tighter fiscal policies. These circumstances create a fertile ground for the resurgence of the zero-sum debtor/creditor conflict that characterized the 2010s.

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