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Something for your Espresso: Bye bye Oprahnomics?

Something for your Espresso: Bye bye Oprahnomics?

The IRA has saved the US from entering a recession alongside peers this year. If the appropriations negotiations this week lead to a bye bye to Oprahnomics, then we consider a recession a done deal for 2024. Buckle up!

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Positioning Watch: Is the bond market plain wrong?

Positioning Watch: Is the bond market plain wrong?

While commodities traders have positioned themselves for the inevitable recession, some equities and FX are living their own lives, celebrating the recent debt ceiling optimism and better than expected GDP numbers. Find out if you have chosen the correct bets in this week’s edition.

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US Equity Watch: A rotations game

US Equity Watch: A rotations game

Areas of the economy are showing increasingly worrying tendencies, and some are outright caving in. Ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, we decided to take a closer look at the state of US equities and whether the defensive rotation was due – or if one were better off leaving the table entirely…

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Out of the box #2: Back to austerity. Euro sovereign crisis vol 2?

Out of the box #2: Back to austerity. Euro sovereign crisis vol 2?

The hardships brought about by Covid and the Ukraine war initially fostered political unity across Europe. In this article however, I will argue that fragmentation may soon regain prominence as liquidity diminishes, labor markets weaken, and governments face the need to implement tighter fiscal policies. These circumstances create a fertile ground for the resurgence of the zero-sum debtor/creditor conflict that characterized the 2010s.

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Steno Signals #46 – Liquidity is drying up fast! Sell in May and go away?

Steno Signals #46 – Liquidity is drying up fast! Sell in May and go away?

We have been bullish on equities through the year but now see increasing signs warranting a defensive shift in positioning. Liquidity is drying up both in Europe and the US, and BoJ has effectively made further liquidity adding interventions unnecessary. China may be the only place on earth with positive liquidity trends.

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5 Things We Watch: Five Aspects Surrounding the Banking Turmoil

5 Things We Watch: Five Aspects Surrounding the Banking Turmoil

This week really has been one for the books. On Friday, markets sounded the alarm as we experienced the second largest bank-failure in US history. Naturally, this behemoth event swept magazine covers and blew up our phones and inboxes leaving not much room for other things to watch – hence this peculiar edition of the recurring ‘5 Things We Watch’, where all five things relate to the banking frenzy.

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