The hardships brought about by Covid and the Ukraine war initially fostered political unity across Europe. In this article however, I will argue that fragmentation may soon regain prominence as liquidity diminishes, labor markets weaken, and governments face the need to implement tighter fiscal policies. These circumstances create a fertile ground for the resurgence of the zero-sum debtor/creditor conflict that characterized the 2010s.
Steno Signals #46 – Liquidity is drying up fast! Sell in May and go away?
We have been bullish on equities through the year but now see increasing signs warranting a defensive shift in positioning. Liquidity is drying up both in Europe and the US, and BoJ has effectively made further liquidity adding interventions unnecessary. China may be the only place on earth with positive liquidity trends.
Steno Signals #45 – 4 ways consensus could be wrongfooted
Here is a list of four concrete ways that consensus could be wrongfooted based on my discussions and findings after having travelled Asian institutions last week.
Labor Market Watch: The final nail in the Coffin?
The unwavering strength of the labor market has backstopped the probability of a classic recession, but is data now finally beginning to show what we have all predicted?
Steno Signals #43 – Slow walking into a recessionary credit crunch
Evidence is gathering that the SVB-fueled banking stress indeed will turn into a recession, but instead of a fast and rapid liquidity driven recession, we are rather slow-walking into a credit crunch over summer.
5 Things We Watch: Five Aspects Surrounding the Banking Turmoil
This week really has been one for the books. On Friday, markets sounded the alarm as we experienced the second largest bank-failure in US history. Naturally, this behemoth event swept magazine covers and blew up our phones and inboxes leaving not much room for other things to watch – hence this peculiar edition of the recurring ‘5 Things We Watch’, where all five things relate to the banking frenzy.
Steno Signals #31 – The recession that EVERYONE agrees upon
Everyone agrees that a recession will hit this year, but will the Chinese reopening wreak havoc with the very uniform positioning across assets? Our flagship editorial Steno Signals is out every Sunday at 14 CET / 08 ET
5 things we watch! China, inflation, debt ceiling, liquidity, and recession
Every Wednesday, our Head of Research Andreas Steno, goes through the 5 most important themes/charts in global macro right now and how we assess them. Enjoy!
Steno Signals 11 – Inflationistas vs Recessionistas
Is this a return to a 70s-like fight between inflation and recession? The energy supply scarcity is likely to bring about yuge business cycle volatility in coming years until the situation is settled.