Rate cuts have been pushed a bit back by central bankers as economic data keeps surprising, but price action doesn’t truly reflect the dynamics we’ve been used to through 2022 and 2023. How should you play the current environment?
Positioning Watch – Markets betting on lower rates and higher oil prices
Troubles in the Red Sea have started to drag oil prices and freight rate futures higher with a lag, while rate cut expectations stay firm. Are markets too late on the oil story, or is there more upside to catch?
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Positioning Watch – How are markets positioned in inflation?
The path to 2% has proven to be more difficult than anticipated, and the disinflation-trend is now potentially starting to turn in the US. Are markets positioned accordingly?
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Positioning Watch – Where to find value currently
The risk aversion theme for 2024 continues as data is starting to go against consensus, and the question for 2024 will be where to find true value in asset markets. A couple of thoughts and charts on that here.
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Portfolio Watch: Peak Dovishness & more liquidity?
While we’ve persistently underscored the risks of intensifying conflicts in the Middle East and enduring inflation in the US, it’s evident that politics serves as the unifying factor behind both. Read how we are playing this environment below!
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Positioning Watch – Risk aversion is back?
Markets seem to have given up the perfect landing narrative, and the ultra-long positioning in bonds and equities has started to retrace. A more mixed 2024 upcoming?
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Positioning Watch – Buy everything seems to be consensus
On the back of a Fed meeting markets have been partying like there is no tomorrow. We assess the recent moves in positioning and reflect on how we see markets move leading into 2024
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Positioning Watch – Are markets ready for Powell Wednesday?
Financial conditions have eased substantially since the last FOMC meeting in November. Are markets prepared for hawkish rhetoric? We explore the data.
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Positioning Watch – Everything better turn out the way markets want it
Equity markets are as bullish as they were in 2021, while fixed-income markets continue to price Fed cuts in for Q2-2024. Are there reasons to worry about current market positioning? Find out here.
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Positioning Watch – All about the soft landing narrative
With CFTC data delayed due to Thanksgiving, we turn our attention to fund flows and sentiment data to see how the soft landing narrative is impacting positioning.
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5 things we watch: Trump, Electricity, CPI, Crude Oil, Fixed Income
It’s Wednesday and that means time for another 5 things we watch where we hone in on the things that we have been most interested in over the last week.
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Portfolio Watch: Staying afloat in a Storm of Uncertainty
Market seems to be all over the place these past trading days and November has thus far both been trick & treat. We are green and have entered new positions. Read our full take below
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Steno Signals #70 – 10 charts you NEED to monitor in global macro
From the ongoing depletion of the Chinese US Treasury holdings, to the BoJ’s impact on global markets concluding with the $-liquidity impact of the ON RRP facility. Here’s a list of 10 MUST watch charts in macro.
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Positioning Watch – Oil longs are not as big as you think
Oil positioning is not as long as people think when looking at actual volumes, bonds are still underperforming, and the bearish sentiment in equities still prevails. Read along for more positioning data insights!
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China Watch: The People’s Bank Pickle – is 7.30 the line in the sand?
The PBoC rate cuts are not a surprise to us as the pressures facing China are intensifying. But where does it leave monetary policy going forward?
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Positioning Watch – The Chinese disappointment is written all over the latest positioning
CPI is cooling with economic data still suggesting that we are in a Goldilocks scenario. But are markets claiming their victory too early? And will unusual optimism be the catalyst for a recession?
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Positioning Watch – The soft landing narrative is scratching the surface again
With the debt ceiling deal done and yesterday’s stunning NFP numbers, the soft landing narrative seems to be back, and optimism is gaining territory in the global macro scene. See what this means for positioning across asset classes, and whether you’ve placed your eggs in the right basket.
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Trade Alert: Five trades added to our portfolio
Our portfolio is live, and we have added USDCNH, long Japanese equities, long 2yr USTs, long EM Local Govies and the FOMO AI trade. Details are attached here.
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Positioning Watch: The mystery behind the massive shorts in equities and bonds
Based on price action, equity optimism is back, but positioning data tells us another story. We unfold the mystery, as well as providing you with positioning data across asset classes. Find out if you share the view of traders in this week’s edition.
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Positioning Watch: Gimme shelther
Now that the ECB and Fed meetings have concluded, we can assess how traders have positioned themselves after the curtains have closed
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Positioning Watch: The EUR is the only one left at the party
With the failure of First Republic Bank and Ueda’s dovish remarks, we once again dig into how traders are positioned across asset classes. Find out if you have picked the right horses in this week’s edition.
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Fixed Income Watch: Zooming in on the curve steepening
What happens when the curve steepens? It is bad good news for commodities, mixed news for equities and often temporarily good news for the USD except against JPY. Here is why..
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Positioning Watch – Is this a bear market rally or the beginning of a bull run?
We look into how traders are positioned every Saturday to assess whether we are leaning with or against the wind. Is this a new bull run or just another bear market rally? Let’s have a look at the numbers
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