German Labor Nugget: Will the Ukrainians play a role in German wage development?
With the Alternative Für Deutschland (AfD) on the rise in regional elections in Bayern (Bavaria) and Hesse, we have decided to look at the economic ramifications of a continued large influx of migrants in Germany. What are the lessons learned from the crisis in 2015 and will migration again impact German wages?
The latest number from the spring of this year by Eurostat has Germany receiving just above 1 million Ukrainian refugees and has most likely only been climbing from then on. We only have to go back to 2015 to see what happened the last time Germany took in a massive amount of refugees with the participation rate jumping some 2 percentage points. With the current prospects of the war in Ukraine, we suspect the Ukrainians in Europe might start to get comfortable because it will take a long time before it’s over.
Chart 1: The participation rate in Germany jumped a couple of years after the 2015 migration wave