Money Watch: Is the BTFP just another form of QE?

Money Watch: Is the BTFP just another form of QE?

A new abbreviation has made its way into the vocabulary of those with an interest in finance, markets, the state of the economy or all of the above. So, what is this ‘Bank Term Funding Program’, and does it really differ from QE in nature?

5 things we watch – Fed policy, positive carry, oil markets, the USD, and implications of the newly appointed BoJ Governor

5 things we watch – Fed policy, positive carry, oil markets, the USD, and implications of the newly appointed BoJ Governor

Midweek has arrived and that calls for a rundown of the five things we watch the closest. As is the custom every Wednesday, we will take you through these most important themes (and charts) in macro and summarize how we interpret them. Dig in!

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US inflation watch – Charts, charts, charts

US inflation watch – Charts, charts, charts

With the recent almost farcical economic data coming out of the US, we bet economists and traders are on the edge of their seats awaiting the coming CPI-print. In this ‘preview’ we’ll turn to our charts trying to align expectations to select indicators.

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Something for your Espresso: The 50bp chatter is back, but it is nonsense..

Something for your Espresso: 5% wage growth in Japan

The RBA echoed rhetoric from other central banks and will frontload a few hikes while assessing the “extent” of damage done to the economy of former lags. The question is now if Powell rocks the boat on the coordinated central bank rhetoric today.

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Asset Allocation Watch – How to exactly position for USD weakness?

Asset Allocation Watch – How to exactly position for USD weakness?

Last week we released our first edition of the ‘Dollar O’ Meter’ which sat out to probe the USD and its relative strength (or weakness). Without giving too much away, we find conviction that further weakness in the USD is up ahead in the next few months. If we are correct, how should one then position for such a circumstance?

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USD’O’Meter #3 –  Continued USD weakening ahead based on our probability weighted models

The Dollar O’ Meter #1 – 5 ways to gauge the USD outlook

The importance of the dollar and its influence on almost any given asset will come to nobody’s surprise, especially after its tear in 2022, which was like a wrecking ball, wreaking havoc in and around the financial system. Therefore we are launching the Dollar O’ Meter to track the USD versus peers.

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Steno Signals #27 – The tanned grinch

Steno Signals #27 – The tanned grinch

Lagarde starred in the role as the slightly more tanned Grinch as central banks decided to ruin Christmas. Structural liquidity doesn’t look too bad and 2023 is not necessarily the year of the bear.

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