We’ve taken a massive WIN in recent weeks, but the markets are precarious here after blood on the street as seasonality shifts. Is there a final surge before the impending collapse?
EM by EM #23 Playing the least dirty laundry vs the dirtiest
When things seem to be spiraling downwards, trades that capitalize on relative weakness often present favorable risk-to-reward opportunities. We’ve recently entered such a trade ourselves
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Something for your Espresso: From a USD-wreckingball to an Oil-wreckingball
The USD wrecking ball haunts again and several Asian Central Banks now actively intervene. The issue is that the USD is not the trigger of this move. Energy is.
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Positioning Watch: Higher for longer vs Lower for longer?
The Fed projects higher rates for longer, while oil production cuts persist. How do markets play the “Higher for longer and Lower for longer” ? Read our weekly report below
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EM by EM #22 The Good, the bad and the ugly
FED is pausing but EM’s are already fed up and the dynamics of the 2022-trade remains our frame of guidance. But what could turn the table?
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Something for your Espresso: “We will carefully hike rates (at least) once more”
Ultimately markets got the memo from the Fed. The rate hikes are not necessarily over, but they will not promise anything at this stage. USD bullish (again).
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EM by EM #21 Why China is uninvestable yet tough to short
7.30 was the line in the sand but can the Chinese defend their thench? We find it unlikely. But the battleground is not a safe place yet
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EM by EM #20 Another energy squeeze in the cards?
Emerging market central banks demonstrated their foresight in 2021, acting ahead of the curve. However, there is a looming concern that the resurgence in energy prices might pose a challenge for them, much like it did in 2022.
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Out of the Box #18: Time for the second inflation wave? AAAAAAH!
With the recent move in Energy, discussions on a broad second wave of inflation have resurfaced. There are similarities to the first wave, but also one MAJOR difference. Here is why..
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Services Week: Will Services now turn into the weakest link of the economy?
When input costs subside for Manufacturers but not for Service companies, the overall economic momentum moves in favour of the Manufacturers. This is most likely the juncture we are at.
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ECB Watch: Damned if you do & doomed if you don’t?
We have argued that risks of a more rapid disinflation in Europe are going under the radar. But as we get poor job opening numbers from the US, how do we assess the growth trajectory of the EZ and how will the ECB likely act?
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Macro Nugget: US Real Estate and Interest Rates
US housing keeps up for now despite sky-high rates. But are the rates just a nothing burger here?
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EM by EM #18 – Why Jackson Hole is more important than Johannesburg
Finance Journos are busy flying this week. But what is going on with BRICS & the FED? EM’s care more about the latter this week
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Jackson Hole Nugget: “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy”
The Jackson Hole conference is a very binary event with the theme of the conference being “Structural Shifts In The Economy”. Will the Fed take the opportunity to talk about a higher inflation target or will they try to kill all hopes of lower interest rates in to 2024? It is either or!
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Portfolio Watch: Catching a Chinese cold?
Summer volatility razor, BoJ and Xi’s real estate malaise have all contributed to headwinds for most asset classes. We are still alive and kicking despite a few knocks and bruises. Read here for full context
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China Watch: The People’s Bank Pickle – is 7.30 the line in the sand?
The PBoC rate cuts are not a surprise to us as the pressures facing China are intensifying. But where does it leave monetary policy going forward?
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EM BY EM #16 Counting coppers and rating cuts
FED & ECB near peak policy rate and UST curve seems to be steepening. Meanwhile, the Chinese are still late with their stimulus package. Where does that leave EM FX? We give our general assessment here.
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FX Watch: Everything that matters for EUR/USD is natural gas
Is the EUR resilience basically just down to a continued decline in local energy costs? Natural Gas prices have explained almost the entire volatility in the EUR since 2021 and with the tide starting to turn in energy space, it may be time to watch out in FX space as well. Here is the data!
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Positioning Watch: From Japan with Love
A lot of volatility and plenty of aspects to digest after a red week in markets. But how have positioning and sentiment moved? Read here to for our view
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EM BY EM #15 – Ecuador General Election as a catalyst?
Plenty of bets in LatAm carry trades unwound this week on the back of BoJ YCC tweak. But perhaps the LatAmsphere has a USD winner short term?
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Money Watch – Is money growth BACK?
The tightening cycle continues for both the Fed, ECB and now also BoJ, and that means it’s time to revisit global money trends to see what might happen next.
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Positioning Watch – The market’s response to another Fed hike
The central bank week is over, and that means it’s time for us to have a look at how Investors and Traders perceived the Fed meeting and how they have adjusted their portfolios in response.
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EM by EM #14 7 EM Charts for the “Central bank Bonanza”
We are back for another big Central Bank week. 7 charts we think are worth paying attention to in the EM space as DM central bankers approach their final hike
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Out of the Box #12: What if the deacceleration of EZ inflation starts to outpace that of the US?
We revisit the eurosceptic case to assess whether we have let our pessimism get the better of us. Or could Euro bulls still be in peril?
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Steno Signals #57 – What on earth is going on with the USD?
The USD has weakened materially over the past weeks, which could be an early harbinger of an improving growth cycle. If cyclical growth is indeed rebounding, right about everyone will be wrongfooted. Here is how we position for it..
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Positioning Watch – Preparing for (dis)inflation?
With a strong jobs report and a soft CPI print, the market is currently digesting divergent data. In the upcoming weeks, we will closely observe market positioning to interpret the implications for price action. If the inflation paradigm is shifting, how are markets prepared?
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Portfolio Watch: From a bond bear bonanza to a stock rally
We are back up on the week having forecasted the CPI record better than the street but contrary to the prevailing sentiment we think this juncture may prove a little counterintuitive
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Something for your Espresso: The USD was killed alongside the CPI
If the USD got killed because of the CPI, the USD bulls will return with a vengeance once it gets increasingly clear that the CPI is getting killed in Europe, Australia and elsewhere within a few months from here, but something more structural might be brewing beneath the surface?
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EM BY EM #11 Hangover after the Gold rush?
Gold has enjoyed a revival on the back of inflation and monetary expansion. But what happens when the tailwinds disappear?
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Portfolio Watch: A green comeback week
Follow along as we keep you updated on our live portfolio and how we view the world allocation-wise every week!
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