A new abbreviation has made its way into the vocabulary of those with an interest in finance, markets, the state of the economy or all of the above. So, what is this ‘Bank Term Funding Program’, and does it really differ from QE in nature?
Seasonality Watch: Four charts that will make you go hmm…
Our working hypothesis continues to center around the current inflation pick-up resembling the September report from 2022 (released in October). Here are four charts that will make you go hmm…
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USD’O’Meter #3 – Continued USD weakening ahead based on our probability weighted models
What is the USD outlook given current liquidity gauges and economic conditions around the globe, you ask? Well that is why we have the Dollar O’Meter where we’ll look at the USD through different lenses.
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Steno Signals #36 – Why 50% of the current rebound is manufactured in a spreadsheet
We experience seasonal adjustments to an extent NEVER seen in time series history for CPI, Retail Sales and ISM numbers in January. Are we amidst a spreadsheet rebound or an actual economic rebound? We lean towards the former. Here is why…
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Something for your Espresso: The 50bp chatter is back, but it is nonsense..
Mester and Bullard have brought back the 50bp chatter and the market is now slowly opening the door for more than 25bps in March. We continue to find the bar to be VERY high for a 50bp hike and no important members have so far mentioned such a hike.
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5 things we watch – Fed policy, positive carry, oil markets, the USD, and implications of the newly appointed BoJ Governor
Midweek has arrived and that calls for a rundown of the five things we watch the closest. As is the custom every Wednesday, we will take you through these most important themes (and charts) in macro and summarize how we interpret them. Dig in!
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Steno Signals #35 – Has global liquidity bottomed already?
We have been spending countless hours discussing the liquidity outlook in the US, but developments elsewhere are equally as interesting. JPY and CNY liquidity is on the RISE, which has turned the tide on “global liquidity”. Position accordingly?
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US inflation watch – Charts, charts, charts
With the recent almost farcical economic data coming out of the US, we bet economists and traders are on the edge of their seats awaiting the coming CPI-print. In this ‘preview’ we’ll turn to our charts trying to align expectations to select indicators.
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Good morning, America: Kazuo Ueda – who?
Is Kazuo Ueda another trial balloon from the Japanese government or is this a confirmation that politicians seek a break-up with the ultra-loose policy of Kuroda?
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“LIAR!” – What did Biden’s State of the Union signal about upcoming debt ceiling negotiation
Tuesday’s State of the Union address gave little cause for optimism that a looming debt crisis in the U.S. can be avoided. Speaker Kevin McCarthy, seemed as powerless as the day he was elected and Biden certainly didn’t make his life any easier.
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Something for your Espresso: How strong is the Chinese rebound really?
Chinese inflation is re-increasing, which rhymes with our APAC inflation story for H1-2023. The question is just how strong the Chinese momentum really is.
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Asset Allocation Watch: Introducing our macro regime indicator methodology
Our macro regime indicator is based on liquidity, inflation and growth, which are the three most important tactical asset allocation variables. Here is how we have built the framework and what to expect from it in the coming months.
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Something for your Espresso: 5% wage growth in Japan
The RBA echoed rhetoric from other central banks and will frontload a few hikes while assessing the “extent” of damage done to the economy of former lags. The question is now if Powell rocks the boat on the coordinated central bank rhetoric today.
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Good Morning America: Wow, just wow!
An eight-sigma beat on non-farm-payrolls for it to print at 517k versus expectations of 188k. What is going on?
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Steno Signals #33: The USD liquidity cushion is alive and well
When the TGA is built up due to T-bills issuance, the ON RRP usage drops, which net/net means that USD liquidity keeps printing at more benign levels than anticipated by many. This will continue throughout February and March
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Positioning Watch – Is this a bear market rally or the beginning of a bull run?
We look into how traders are positioned every Saturday to assess whether we are leaning with or against the wind. Is this a new bull run or just another bear market rally? Let’s have a look at the numbers
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USD watch – “The Waller rule” meets the USD
How closely tied is the USD outlook to the liquidity outlook and what does it mean for the USD barometer going forward?
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5 Things We Watch: APAC-inflation, The New BoJ Governor, US Wages, Green Shoots and Natural Gas
Every Wednesday our Head of Research, Andreas Steno, goes through the 5 most important themes/charts in global macro right now and how we assess them. Enjoy!
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Asset Allocation Watch – How to exactly position for USD weakness?
Last week we released our first edition of the ‘Dollar O’ Meter’ which sat out to probe the USD and its relative strength (or weakness). Without giving too much away, we find conviction that further weakness in the USD is up ahead in the next few months. If we are correct, how should one then position for such a circumstance?
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The Dollar O’ Meter #1 – 5 ways to gauge the USD outlook
The importance of the dollar and its influence on almost any given asset will come to nobody’s surprise, especially after its tear in 2022, which was like a wrecking ball, wreaking havoc in and around the financial system. Therefore we are launching the Dollar O’ Meter to track the USD versus peers.
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5 things we watch: Bank of Japan, the falling USD, Dr Copper, the ON RRP and China vs. India
Every Wednesday our Head of Research, Andreas Steno, goes through the 5 most important themes/charts in global macro right now and how we assess them. Enjoy!
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Bond Watch – Kuroda the rug-puller.. What is priced in for BoJ?
It is a BIG week in Japanese central bank history with widespread speculation of another increase to the trading range of 10yr JGBs in the yield curve control program. More than 35 bps are priced in, but will BoJ fail to deliver?
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Steno Signals #31 – The recession that EVERYONE agrees upon
Everyone agrees that a recession will hit this year, but will the Chinese reopening wreak havoc with the very uniform positioning across assets? Our flagship editorial Steno Signals is out every Sunday at 14 CET / 08 ET
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Inflation Watch – Further downside to US CPI consensus
It is now that time of month again. As economists anxiously await the coming CPI-print, we will in this ‘preview’ turn to our charts in an effort to align expectations according to select indicators.
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Steno Signals #27 – The tanned grinch
Lagarde starred in the role as the slightly more tanned Grinch as central banks decided to ruin Christmas. Structural liquidity doesn’t look too bad and 2023 is not necessarily the year of the bear.
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Steno Signals #26 – Stealth QE through the back door?
Is it really a possible scenario that the Fed will do stealth-QE by summer 2023? And are equities still a sell based on USD liquidity plumbing? Get the answers here!
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Steno Signals #24 – Bipolar China
A rising case count is ultimately the only trigger cable to end to the Chinese zero Covid regime, why the possibility of a reopening is currently INCREASING.
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Steno Signals #19 – 1, 2, 3, Central bank panic
Is BoE the patient zero in the fight against bond vigilantes? More panic could be upcoming from other central banks soon as real rates are shooting for the stars
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Steno Signal #17- A historic FX crisis in Europe
A historic gas sabotage and FX crisis. We have enough to look at in Europe this week. Here is my take on how to seek shelter from the current crisis. Enjoy!
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Steno Signals #10 – How to position for a landslide in PMIs?
What happens in markets when the ISM Manufacturing index drops below 50 over the next quarter? We have looked across all assets with interesting findings.
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