A new abbreviation has made its way into the vocabulary of those with an interest in finance, markets, the state of the economy or all of the above. So, what is this ‘Bank Term Funding Program’, and does it really differ from QE in nature?

A new abbreviation has made its way into the vocabulary of those with an interest in finance, markets, the state of the economy or all of the above. So, what is this ‘Bank Term Funding Program’, and does it really differ from QE in nature?
Our working hypothesis continues to center around the current inflation pick-up resembling the September report from 2022 (released in October). Here are four charts that will make you go hmm…
What is the USD outlook given current liquidity gauges and economic conditions around the globe, you ask? Well that is why we have the Dollar O’Meter where we’ll look at the USD through different lenses.
We experience seasonal adjustments to an extent NEVER seen in time series history for CPI, Retail Sales and ISM numbers in January. Are we amidst a spreadsheet rebound or an actual economic rebound? We lean towards the former. Here is why…
Mester and Bullard have brought back the 50bp chatter and the market is now slowly opening the door for more than 25bps in March. We continue to find the bar to be VERY high for a 50bp hike and no important members have so far mentioned such a hike.
Midweek has arrived and that calls for a rundown of the five things we watch the closest. As is the custom every Wednesday, we will take you through these most important themes (and charts) in macro and summarize how we interpret them. Dig in!
We have been spending countless hours discussing the liquidity outlook in the US, but developments elsewhere are equally as interesting. JPY and CNY liquidity is on the RISE, which has turned the tide on “global liquidity”. Position accordingly?
With the recent almost farcical economic data coming out of the US, we bet economists and traders are on the edge of their seats awaiting the coming CPI-print. In this ‘preview’ we’ll turn to our charts trying to align expectations to select indicators.
Is Kazuo Ueda another trial balloon from the Japanese government or is this a confirmation that politicians seek a break-up with the ultra-loose policy of Kuroda?
Tuesday’s State of the Union address gave little cause for optimism that a looming debt crisis in the U.S. can be avoided. Speaker Kevin McCarthy, seemed as powerless as the day he was elected and Biden certainly didn’t make his life any easier.
Chinese inflation is re-increasing, which rhymes with our APAC inflation story for H1-2023. The question is just how strong the Chinese momentum really is.
Our macro regime indicator is based on liquidity, inflation and growth, which are the three most important tactical asset allocation variables. Here is how we have built the framework and what to expect from it in the coming months.
The RBA echoed rhetoric from other central banks and will frontload a few hikes while assessing the “extent” of damage done to the economy of former lags. The question is now if Powell rocks the boat on the coordinated central bank rhetoric today.
An eight-sigma beat on non-farm-payrolls for it to print at 517k versus expectations of 188k. What is going on?
When the TGA is built up due to T-bills issuance, the ON RRP usage drops, which net/net means that USD liquidity keeps printing at more benign levels than anticipated by many. This will continue throughout February and March
We look into how traders are positioned every Saturday to assess whether we are leaning with or against the wind. Is this a new bull run or just another bear market rally? Let’s have a look at the numbers
How closely tied is the USD outlook to the liquidity outlook and what does it mean for the USD barometer going forward?
Every Wednesday our Head of Research, Andreas Steno, goes through the 5 most important themes/charts in global macro right now and how we assess them. Enjoy!
Last week we released our first edition of the ‘Dollar O’ Meter’ which sat out to probe the USD and its relative strength (or weakness). Without giving too much away, we find conviction that further weakness in the USD is up ahead in the next few months. If we are correct, how should one then position for such a circumstance?
The importance of the dollar and its influence on almost any given asset will come to nobody’s surprise, especially after its tear in 2022, which was like a wrecking ball, wreaking havoc in and around the financial system. Therefore we are launching the Dollar O’ Meter to track the USD versus peers.
Every Wednesday our Head of Research, Andreas Steno, goes through the 5 most important themes/charts in global macro right now and how we assess them. Enjoy!
It is a BIG week in Japanese central bank history with widespread speculation of another increase to the trading range of 10yr JGBs in the yield curve control program. More than 35 bps are priced in, but will BoJ fail to deliver?
Everyone agrees that a recession will hit this year, but will the Chinese reopening wreak havoc with the very uniform positioning across assets? Our flagship editorial Steno Signals is out every Sunday at 14 CET / 08 ET
It is now that time of month again. As economists anxiously await the coming CPI-print, we will in this ‘preview’ turn to our charts in an effort to align expectations according to select indicators.
Lagarde starred in the role as the slightly more tanned Grinch as central banks decided to ruin Christmas. Structural liquidity doesn’t look too bad and 2023 is not necessarily the year of the bear.
Is it really a possible scenario that the Fed will do stealth-QE by summer 2023? And are equities still a sell based on USD liquidity plumbing? Get the answers here!
A rising case count is ultimately the only trigger cable to end to the Chinese zero Covid regime, why the possibility of a reopening is currently INCREASING.
Is BoE the patient zero in the fight against bond vigilantes? More panic could be upcoming from other central banks soon as real rates are shooting for the stars
A historic gas sabotage and FX crisis. We have enough to look at in Europe this week. Here is my take on how to seek shelter from the current crisis. Enjoy!
What happens in markets when the ISM Manufacturing index drops below 50 over the next quarter? We have looked across all assets with interesting findings.