The U.S government will shut down on Sunday when FY23 funding elapses with no spending bill to replace it. This is how we assess the shutdown unfolding and how it will affect the outcome of the final 2024 budget.
Something for your Espresso: Waiting for a German restocking cycle amidst a shutdown
A crucial week is ahead of us in global macro as the only remaining bastion in the global economy may be heading into a shutdown. Meanwhile, we are watching for signs of an emerging restocking cycle in Germany.
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US Economy Watch: The Recession That Never Came… Or?
Inflation in the word recession? Some have stubbornly called for a doomslike recession while others see the economy firing on all cylinders. Our data-based weigh in on the topic.
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Out of the Box #17 How would US exceptionalism flip the table for the RoW?
Global trade is shifting and the US economy is still going strong but the dynamics are changing as are the times. How will global macro likely change as a result?
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Great Game – Biden on charm offensive
President Biden flies to South Asia on a charm offensive. But what can he accomplish and what will the Chinese do?
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Investment Screening: Why Biden’s Order is Actually a Good Sign for US-China Relations
I think Biden’s executive order on investment screening is actually a good sign for US-China relations and a part of the ongoing “mini-detente”. Read why!
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EM by EM #12 – Is the surging Peso a prelude for a longer Mexico bull case?
Many have profited from MXN carry in the first half of 2023. But is there more left to squeeze out or is it running on fumes? We give our take here and assess the structural patterns at play in Mexico in relation to recent performance and the geopolitical climate.
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U.S Debt Watch: Do we need this conversation again?
Pheew… close call! The bipartisan debt ceiling bill saved the U.S from economic disarray. Now we can all take a well-deserved summer holiday and bask in the sunshine of the long-term financial stability ensured by responsible lawmakers who have no interest in short-term solutions nor gains. But no – not so fast! We still have a looming government shutdown to attend to.
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US Debt Watch: Who’ll absorb the blow?
An agreement on lifting the statutory debt ceiling has been made, and the treasury general account now has to be replenished by issuing new debt. What does that imply for financial markets, and is the outlook as bleak as some pundits claim?
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Earnings Watch: Which Equity markets offer the best opportunities across the Pacific?
The U.S. and Japanese equity markets present a contrast in earnings expectations, driven by differing economic conditions and monetary policies. Will the optimism for U.S. earnings growth last, and has the immense influx of capital to Japanese markets overbid fair value?
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Something for your Espresso: “Only one week left”
Kevin McCarthy has initiated the blame game in the debt ceiling debacle to try and increase Joe Bidens incentives to strike a deal ahead of a partial shutdown. Our game-theoretical analysis has long put the partial shutdown as the base case as both Joe Biden and the right wing of the Republicans have limited incentives to strike a deal ahead of time.
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US Equity Watch: A rotations game
Areas of the economy are showing increasingly worrying tendencies, and some are outright caving in. Ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, we decided to take a closer look at the state of US equities and whether the defensive rotation was due – or if one were better off leaving the table entirely…
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Debt Ceiling Countdown #4: The Chicken Game Catastrophe
When it comes to the debt ceiling, politicians are not the only ones asleep at the steering wheel. Political commentators, too, seem freakishly calm telling folks that Congress *eventually* has to reach a settlement on raising the debt ceiling. While I don’t disagree with the end-result, it is astounding how few are concerned with the likely government crisis that will unfold before a deal is struck. We are underestimating the power of the Freedom Caucus and overestimating Biden’s willingness to avoid a government shutdown. The cocktail is putting the U.S. on a path towards debt brinkmanship.
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Inflation Watch: 7 charts on inflation even though no one cares
We focus on three categories in today’s inflation print from the US. Shelter, Medical Services and Transportation Services. Overall, we find risks to be on the downside for inflation but mostly in March/April.
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Good Morning, America: Not a disinflationary biggie
The disinflationary vibes are not tattooed all over this inflation report despite a cooling yearly inflation pace for the seventh consecutive month. BUT.. do note that Powells target variable keeps cooling!
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The Great Game: Iran Under Attack – Our Quick Take
While still early days, it certainly seems like Iran is the target of a planned, organized wave of drone strikes. Is it a response to Friday’s attack on the Azeri embassy? Is it a US plot to halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions? What’s the endgame?
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Real Estate Watch – Which markets will be worst off in 2023?
While liquid markets are still trying to make up their minds on whether to rise from the ashes of H2 2022 or continue the downward trajectory, I think it is due time we put the real estate markets under the scrutinous loop once more.
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Valuation Watch #1 – What’s Cheap and What’s Expensive in Equity space?
What is cheap and what is expensive in equity space? We have taken a look across sectors, geographies and styles in equity space. Here is what is cheap and what is expensive.
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US Inflation Watch – A consensus print, but decently dovish beneath the surface
Inflation printed right on consensus despite another jump in shelter costs. Several goods categories cooled quicker than anticipated by many. This is net/net a dovish report after all. USD remains a sell.
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The Great Game #7 – German Panzers in Ukraine?
Whoa, what a week it has been in Ukraine. Russian calls for ceasefires, rumours about Putins imminent death and now the prospect of German Panzers rolling around Ukraine. Have we just entered 1943 and not 2023? And does the huge influx of Western armored vehicles change our outlook on the war?
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Steno Signals #28 – 2 reasons to begin 2023 with a bit of equity exposure
Right about everyone and their mother expects a new low in equities in Q1/Q2-2023 because of earnings disappointments. Here are two reasons to remain decently upbeat.
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Steno Signals #27 – The tanned grinch
Lagarde starred in the role as the slightly more tanned Grinch as central banks decided to ruin Christmas. Structural liquidity doesn’t look too bad and 2023 is not necessarily the year of the bear.
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