We focus on three categories in today’s inflation print from the US. Shelter, Medical Services and Transportation Services. Overall, we find risks to be on the downside for inflation but mostly in March/April.
Good Morning, America: Not a disinflationary biggie
The disinflationary vibes are not tattooed all over this inflation report despite a cooling yearly inflation pace for the seventh consecutive month. BUT.. do note that Powells target variable keeps cooling!
The Great Game: Iran Under Attack – Our Quick Take
While still early days, it certainly seems like Iran is the target of a planned, organized wave of drone strikes. Is it a response to Friday’s attack on the Azeri embassy? Is it a US plot to halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions? What’s the endgame?
Real Estate Watch – Which markets will be worst off in 2023?
While liquid markets are still trying to make up their minds on whether to rise from the ashes of H2 2022 or continue the downward trajectory, I think it is due time we put the real estate markets under the scrutinous loop once more.
Valuation Watch #1 – What’s Cheap and What’s Expensive in Equity space?
What is cheap and what is expensive in equity space? We have taken a look across sectors, geographies and styles in equity space. Here is what is cheap and what is expensive.
US Inflation Watch – A consensus print, but decently dovish beneath the surface
Inflation printed right on consensus despite another jump in shelter costs. Several goods categories cooled quicker than anticipated by many. This is net/net a dovish report after all. USD remains a sell.
The Great Game #7 – German Panzers in Ukraine?
Whoa, what a week it has been in Ukraine. Russian calls for ceasefires, rumours about Putins imminent death and now the prospect of German Panzers rolling around Ukraine. Have we just entered 1943 and not 2023? And does the huge influx of Western armored vehicles change our outlook on the war?
Steno Signals #28 – 2 reasons to begin 2023 with a bit of equity exposure
Right about everyone and their mother expects a new low in equities in Q1/Q2-2023 because of earnings disappointments. Here are two reasons to remain decently upbeat.
Steno Signals #27 – The tanned grinch
Lagarde starred in the role as the slightly more tanned Grinch as central banks decided to ruin Christmas. Structural liquidity doesn’t look too bad and 2023 is not necessarily the year of the bear.