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US Debt Watch: Time for lengthy shutdown?

U.S Debt Watch: Do we need this conversation again?

Pheew… close call! The bipartisan debt ceiling bill saved the U.S from economic disarray. Now we can all take a well-deserved summer holiday and bask in the sunshine of the long-term financial stability ensured by responsible lawmakers who have no interest in short-term solutions nor gains. But no – not so fast! We still have a looming government shutdown to attend to.

Something for your Espresso: Second-guessing the next (growth) narrative

Something for your Espresso: “Only one week left”

Kevin McCarthy has initiated the blame game in the debt ceiling debacle to try and increase Joe Bidens incentives to strike a deal ahead of a partial shutdown. Our game-theoretical analysis has long put the partial shutdown as the base case as both Joe Biden and the right wing of the Republicans have limited incentives to strike a deal ahead of time.

US Equity Watch: A rotations game

US Equity Watch: A rotations game

Areas of the economy are showing increasingly worrying tendencies, and some are outright caving in. Ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, we decided to take a closer look at the state of US equities and whether the defensive rotation was due – or if one were better off leaving the table entirely…

Debt Ceiling Countdown #4: The Chicken Game Catastrophe

Debt Ceiling Countdown #4: The Chicken Game Catastrophe

When it comes to the debt ceiling, politicians are not the only ones asleep at the steering wheel. Political commentators, too, seem freakishly calm telling folks that Congress *eventually* has to reach a settlement on raising the debt ceiling. While I don’t disagree with the end-result, it is astounding how few are concerned with the likely government crisis that will unfold before a deal is struck. We are underestimating the power of the Freedom Caucus and overestimating Biden’s willingness to avoid a government shutdown. The cocktail is putting the U.S. on a path towards debt brinkmanship.


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