While the internet seems totally preoccupied with the San Francisco summit between Xi and Biden, I find other news and analysis much more interesting right now. This week saw the release of a major New York Times/Siena Poll of the 2024 Presidential Election – and some of the results were outright shocking. I’m now at a point where a Trump win next November looks very likely to me. A lot can change between now and then, but several key, below-the-surface indicators are pointing in that direction. Let’s go over them one by one:

Biden is very unpopular

President Biden’s approval ratings continue to sour as the country heads into potential Oil price headwinds and numerous unsolved foreign policy challenges. The Biden camp has launched a number of PR offensives during 2023 – most notably the coining of “Bidenomics”, but none have managed to close the gap, which has even accelerated since summertime. An approval rating of 41.0 is disastrous. Donald Trump was at 43.8 at this point in 2019 with rising trends heading into the 2020 elections, and he still got beaten handily at the polls.

To make matters worse, the heir apparent, Kamala Harris is polling at just 36.3, which basically makes her unelectable at this point. This is a huge concern – especially since 77% of Americans are skeptical of Joe Biden’s age, which will most likely be the pivotal campaign subject for 2024. With Biden’s designated successor beginning to look even less popular, that’s a very complicated outlook for the re-election campaign.

Blacks favoring Trump