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Business Cycle Inflation US

Something for your Espresso: The US is accelerating, what’s next?

The market consensus is turning more and more upbeat on 2024 forecasts for the US economy, but what about China and Germany?
2024-03-01
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/andreas/" target="_self">Andreas Steno</a>

Andreas Steno

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Amidst a fairly boring/predictable PCE report yesterday (confirming the sharp re-acceleration of the CPI and the core PCE ex housing measure), we saw a major upside surprise to the personal income statistic.

This happens most often in re-inflationary periods and we once again see a firm personal income trend in Q1 due to cola adjustments enhancing the embedded inflation math.

This is a strong sign for the US consumer and something we have seen in Q1 every year since the inflation wave began.

Chart 1: Strong upside in personal income growth

The market consensus is turning more and more upbeat on 2024 forecasts for the US economy, but what about China and Germany?

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