Something for your Espresso: Waiting for a German restocking cycle amidst a shutdown
Morning from Europe.
A relatively quite start to an important week in global macro. Will the US Federal Government shut down and will German Manufacturing prospects rebound? Follow along below.
The conclusions in short:
– The German IFO Survey will reveal whether to go long Nat Gas or not this week. Watch the Chemicals sector as the best cyclical gauge in Europe.
– The USD long is not a good risk/reward trade ahead of a week with large shutdown risks. The deadline for US policy makers is less than a week away with very little progress.
– The US Macro picture is walking a tightrope and might catch down towards peers due to a weakening service sector
– Energy remains a strong performer right until (and even into) the actual recession
Chart of the week: US Manufacturing has saved the whole construction sector in 2023