Is the current energy crisis reminiscent of 2022? We compared the energy crisis 2.0 to the 1.0 crisis of 2021/2022 and díscuss the trading playbook in such a scenario. Enjoy (the crisis)!
The Fed projects higher rates for longer, while oil production cuts persist. How do markets play the “Higher for longer and Lower for longer” ? Read our weekly report below
With Central Bank rate decisions taking headlines this week, we have a look at the 5 things we watch in global macro, and give you our take on FOMC, BoE and more.
Did the Biden admin send up a trial balloon on the SPR strategy without major success? Meanwhile, energy- and foodflation sadly continues across traded markets. It will not be an easy afternoon for the Fed.
Betting against Europe is becoming increasingly popular, but the energy trade is yet to become overcrowded. Here is the weekly positioning report.
With Brent crude trading above 90$ / barrel, markets beg the question if we are about to enter a new bull run in energy markets – indicators could very well point towards it. But watch out for the elephant in the room: Uranium.
Emerging market central banks demonstrated their foresight in 2021, acting ahead of the curve. However, there is a looming concern that the resurgence in energy prices might pose a challenge for them, much like it did in 2022.
With the recent move in Energy, discussions on a broad second wave of inflation have resurfaced. There are similarities to the first wave, but also one MAJOR difference. Here is why..
There is a sudden smell of 2021/2022 in the air again as Muftis and Zars suddenly have the upper hand in energy markets again. Can Bin Salman make life difficult for the West in Q4?
The Chinese stimulus measures presented last week could provide generalists with another reason to jump the Energy bull train. Does this mean that the energy optimism is close to peak?
What should we expect if the whispers of massiv crude oil draws hold true, and does last year’s LNG-hoarding safeguard Europe if the coming winter turns out to be a cold one? We have taken a look.
Is the Chinese malaise an issue for energy bulls? Let’s have a look at market fundamentals and price action amidst the ongoing melt-down in Chinese construction.
Happy start to the week everybody, hope you have had a great weekend! Lots of things are going on in markets right now, perhaps most importantly China, so let’s dive right into that.
Is the EUR resilience basically just down to a continued decline in local energy costs? Natural Gas prices have explained almost the entire volatility in the EUR since 2021 and with the tide starting to turn in energy space, it may be time to watch out in FX space as well. Here is the data!
The sudden weakness in the USD adds to the list of positives for energy and commodities overall. Is the best possible bull setup now in place? We take a look.
With the US inflation report coming in later today, we have a look at the 5 things that we are keeping an eye out for in markets.
Rates are moving on the back of strong numbers in the labor market, but energy is not finding a bid… yet? This week we wonder if there is life in energy after all.
The equity rally continues, Xi is in the middle of structural issues, house lending is falling off a cliff in EZ and inflation is waning fast. Read more about the 5 things that we watch currently in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’.
Europe has seen some remarkable energy prices in recent days with record negative electricity prices in the North Western part of the continent, while Saudi Arabia strikes again and prolongs the supply cuts into August.
Energy markets remain calm despite a truly turbulent weekend in Russia. We look at the fundamentals of both Gas and Oil below.
We are now experiencing a full-blown battle between Saudi Arabia and oil specs! Will Saudi Arabia get the upper hand or do they suffer from diminishing returns?
The battle between MBS and Biden seems to be intensifying and so far Saudi Arabia is struggling to get the upper hand. Will the OPEC+ supply cut prove to be a game changer for markets?
Why – even after successive cuts – does crude oil keep settling on a $70 barrel? The conundrum has pitted the OPEC+ alliance against each other. Suspicious eyes are turning away from outside foes, and are now looking inwards, trying to sniff out the mole who is free-riding on the collective. Will the imposter be detrimental to Saudi’s production cut strategy?
Saudi Arabia once again attempts to gain the upper hand in the oil-market. There is no doubt that the frosty relationship between MBS and Biden plays a part in the ongoing oil-tango, but will Saudi Arabia succeed? We doubt it.
Will OPEC+ be able to rock the boat in energy markets again? Saudi Arabian budget break-evens are probably 5-7$ above current selling prices and MBS could be tempted to try and force the price higher again. The issue is that China is not playing ball and other OPEC+ members oppose further production cuts.
While OPEC+ tries their best to prop up prices via cutbacks on supply, demand is evidently still not as strong as oil bulls would’ve liked. Will the Chinese momentum pick up and deplete reserves and will the turn of summer in the northern hemisphere counter such effects?
The Chinese comeback is still very services based, which has proven to be an issue for the energy bull case. Will the Chinese momentum be reignited in H2 and where does it leave the energy space?
Weeeeehoooooooooooo! Inflation is finally truly waning, but have we forgotten about the reason why inflation is declining? Disinflation is only mana from heaven for so long and the USD funding market stress looms!
Even the scarcity of energy will probably not bring bullish price-action back to natural gas markets, while the outlook for oil is brighter. Can oil and gas crush the obstacles that they are faced with? Find out in this version of the energy cable, where Warren and I as usual don’t quite agree.
How do we approach the most anticipated recession in newer history when the labor market keeps holding up? And how severe is the banking crisis in a historical context? We aim at providing you with the answers here.
