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The Energy Cable #35 – Are monster draws ahead?

What should we expect if the whispers of massiv crude oil draws hold true, and does last year's LNG-hoarding safeguard Europe if the coming winter turns out to be a cold one? We have taken a look.
2023-08-29
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/ulriksimmelholt/" target="_self">Ulrik Simmelholt</a>

Ulrik Simmelholt

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Steno Research: From supply to demand side weakness in 12 months

Last Friday we received the August print of the business assessment from German firms via the Ifo Institut and it wasn’t pretty. As we are nearing the levels seen around the energy crisis of last summer/early fall, we notice the difference in the cause for pessimism. Last year it was all about the supply side with companies suffering from the high input prices, but this time around companies are telling a story of weakness on the demand side. So now all is good on the supply side at least right? Well, not really. Germany is still at risk of getting hammered on both sides this winter.

Chart 1: Ifo at levels last seen in the summer of 2022

What should we expect if the whispers of massiv crude oil draws hold true, and does last year’s LNG-hoarding safeguard Europe if the coming winter turns out to be a cold one? We have taken a look.

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