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Biden MBS Oil SPR

Oil Watch: MBS vs. Biden intensifies

Saudi Arabia once again attempts to gain the upper hand in the oil-market. There is no doubt that the frosty relationship between MBS and Biden plays a part in the ongoing oil-tango, but will Saudi Arabia succeed? We doubt it.
2023-06-04
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/andreas/" target="_self">Andreas Steno</a>

Andreas Steno

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Three things to consider on the back of the meeting:

1) The Saudis had to do the heavy lifting, which is a crystal-clear signal of a lack of unity in the OPEC+ forum. Russia (pardon, China) and the UAE are NOT fully aligned with strategy.

2) UAE has been given the green light to increase its baseline output and Russian deputy PM Novak says the Russians have the possibility to tweak their decisions. It sounds a bit messy. Some are voluntarily cutting, some are forced to cut, while some are allowed to increase quotas.

3) This is a bit like when a bank under pressure comes out to the markets and assures it that it is resilient. You just don’t quite believe it and the second cut in just a few months seems panicky – and on top of that there is now extreme “upwards” supply flexibility in forwards terms, while the scope for further cuts (outside from Saudi) seems exhausted.

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Saudi Arabia once again attempts to gain the upper hand in the oil-market. There is no doubt that the frosty relationship between MBS and Biden plays a part in the ongoing oil-tango, but will Saudi Arabia succeed? We doubt it.

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