The “Watch Series” is a collection of individual series such as Europolitics Watch, Inflation Watch, Real Estate watch and much more. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage of your favourite subjects.
From 200 bps worth of cuts priced in for June across the big 3 CBs in the start of January to 100 bps now. Does it move the needle or is everybody still on the risk-wagon?
Last week we were close to writing our obituary on our crude oil long position and this week we are almost back in green. The last few weeks in crude have surely been something!
Markets betting on one of the softest MoM services CPI prints in UK inflation history in January. Feasible? Yes, but…
US tech has been our saving grace, and we’re reaching a point where it’s legitimate to ask if there’s any point in doing anything other than buying NVDA?
With revisions out of the way, we can look forward to the US CPI report on Tuesday. Everything points towards a softening and a May cut should be back in focus!
Freight rates have started to level off, but remember that this is the “soft season” for shipping volumes. From March and onwards, the shipping volumes will accelerate sharply.
A lot has been said about the Non Farm Payroll report last week yet we believe certain aspects have still largely flown under the radar. Read which below
The revised weights -and seasonal patterns will be revealed by the BLS on Friday, while we will get the updated weights from Europe alongside an understanding of the tax impact on HICP inflation.
With beyond robust US economic growth, the interplay of growth, inflation, and liquidity takes center stage. How will this persuasive expansion shape the inflation trajectory and inform structural asset allocation strategies?
Is inflation going to re-accelerate? The bottom is in for the SLOOS survey, which tends to be a strong cyclical indicator in the US economy.
Rate cuts have been pushed a bit back by central bankers as economic data keeps surprising, but price action doesn’t truly reflect the dynamics we’ve been used to through 2022 and 2023. How should you play the current environment?
We have taken on a new FX position and have pinned another to the watchlist. See details below
Crude oil above USD 80 lasted all but a week and we are now trading in the January range again. Here is our take along with some oil-related news from the week. The structural oil bet is still improving beneath the hood.
Manic price action across the board this week and everything looks up in the air. We are still alive and kicking despite the volatility
The weekly freight rate print just landed with the first negative weekly change in almost two months. Let’s delve into the data.
The first rate cut is a timing question from both the Fed, the ECB and the BoE now. How do we trade the first cut and why are seasonality issues important to bear in mind? Read along here.
Yellen holds the keys to an early end to QT. At the surface, she holds all the incentives to get the QT tapering process started sooner rather than later. Will it be reflected in the QRA details tomorrow?
Option premiums allow one to derive risk-neutral probabilities for the underlying security at expiry. How are these probabilities looking for USD, EUR- and GBP inflation?
The Red Sea crisis contagion is spreading to the energy space. With signs of stress emerging in Energy Markets, we have entered a timely long as positioning remains light despite the ongoing Red Sea debacles.
Troubles in the Red Sea have started to drag oil prices and freight rate futures higher with a lag, while rate cut expectations stay firm. Are markets too late on the oil story, or is there more upside to catch?
The potential for a soft EUR-flation week paired with spill-overs in the Red Sea leads us to implement a few new trades in the portfolio.
Evergrande has now formally transitioned from a state of de facto default to a legal liquidation. How will the markets and Beijing act to the latest ruling?
Germany is the biggest inflation battleground in January. Volatility in forecasts is enormous. Will Germany deliver a deflationary shock compared to expectations?
With Trump looking as a sure-fire bet to take the Republican nomination, how is the voter demographics poised for the eventual Biden-Trump rematch?
Sticky prices and high growth appears to be the winning combination to bet on, and this week’s data undoubtedly reaffirmed that. Read below for our full take!
If it quacks and walks like a duck, it probably is a duck. The same can be said about the disinflationary wave in Europe, which got more confirmation with today’s full Ifo report.
We see downside risks to the ECBs growth-, wage and inflation forecast for Q1. Is a March cut in play? Or is the market right that they will have to take another dovish step in March before cutting in April?
Over the last month, we have covered the shipping troubles in the Red Sea along with the potential consequences for markets. As we are of the opinion that this topic is very important we thought that we would post a piece recapping where we are and what to expect going forward.
We remain below early consensus expectations in Germany. Here is our latest set of forecasts for January HICP numbers ahead of the release next week.
Stopped out of utilities, but the rest of the portfolio performs nicely
