Inflation Watch: Adjusting for revisions, tax, seasonality and sunspots
This week will bring about a tonne of revisions- and weight updates in inflation numbers from the statistical bureaus on both sides of the pond.
Let’s have a look at the details!
USA – A moderately dovish revision package
We have been banging the drums on seasonal adjustments adding to the volatility in USD STIR markets and key figures over the past years.
The X13-ARIMA-SEATS methodology increases the volatility in the US economic key figure cycle after the pandemic and if we turn back time exactly 12 months, a hawkish repricing also occurred through early February (with the release of extremely positive January numbers).
H1 of the year is generally helped MORE than typically seen, while H2 is helped less than typically seen (see the example of ISMs attached below).
This is a reason to fade the hawkish trends into late February and early March.
Chart 1: Seasonal adjustment factors for the ISMs on average
The revised weights -and seasonal patterns will be revealed by the BLS on Friday, while we will get the updated weights from Europe alongside an understanding of the tax impact on HICP inflation.