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Macro Regime Indicator: MORE liquidity is coming

Macro Regime Indicator: MORE liquidity is coming

Just as we identified in last month’s regime – and as our asset allocation model predicted -, risk assets have indeed performed. Question is if they will continue to. As always, we present our model framework on how to structure your portfolio.

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Something for your Espresso: USD liquidity back in the driver’s seat

Something for your Espresso: Bye bye USD?

The USD is trading weak versus especially low-yielding peers, which is consistent with a bull-steepening of the yield curve. The question is if the SNB and the BoJ will have to change plans due to stronger FX developments.

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Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy long in cyclical FX

Macro Regime Indicator: Heavy long in cyclical FX

Just as most tabloid models forecasted a near-0% chance of a recession within the next year, markets reacted in stark contrast. Can the recent broad based selloff and the following and current rally be explained by developments in liquidity, inflation, or growth?

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USD Liquidity Watch: Treasury selling due to bank reserves influx?

Central Bank Watch: The Fed has gone from QE to QT to QB

The Fed no longer does QT in practice as they likely fear the repercussions for the yield curve should they allow USD liquidity to truly dwindle. The ECB on the other hand remains steady in bringing liquidity down. EUR-flation will drop faster than USD-flation.

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Something for your Espresso: USD liquidity back in the driver’s seat

Something for your Espresso: Are these ISM numbers recessionary?

We are back to the good old discussion on whether eight straight months of manufacturing contraction equals a recession or not. The jury is still out, and equity markets have not received the memo yet in case. The ISM Services will be a guiding star, but not a decisive one.

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