Something for your Espresso: Rising liquidity and inflation?
Morning from Europe ahead of an inflation-focused week.
The monthly US CPI report is released on Thursday and the consensus looks decently fair for once. If anything, our models tilt ever so slightly to the hawkish side of consensus, among other things driven by apparel, transportation costs and the “commodities less food and energy commodities” category.
The trend in underlying US inflation remains around 0.3% (above target) and there are few signs of an actual deceleration. We will release our USD inflation preview shortly.
Chart 1: CPI decomposed in the US
This week’s inflation numbers are unlikely to fuel receiver bets in USD fixed income, while freight rates remain the center of attention. Meanwhile, liquidity is improving fast.