Filter by Categories
Watch Series
The Great Game
Daily Post
Steno Signals
Free Content
Emerging Markets
Video
ECB Watch: Trading the January lull

ECB Watch: Trading the January lull

The ECB is unlikely to rock the boat on Thursday but we still find strong risk/reward in betting on substantial forecast errors by the staff in Frankfurt in the coming months. Here is why!

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

Policy Watch: The German ‘debt brake’ on EU green tech ambitions

EUROPOLITICS WATCH: Opposition victory in Poland opens door for Ukraine in the EU?

On Wednesday, the European commission made a formal recommendation to start EU membership negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova. Now Ukraine must secure the endorsements of member states – not least Poland’s incoming government who will be decisive for Ukraine’s future with the Union.

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

ECB Watch: Damned if you do & doomed if you don’t?

ECB Watch: Damned if you do & doomed if you don’t?

We have argued that risks of a more rapid disinflation in Europe are going under the radar. But as we get poor job opening numbers from the US, how do we assess the growth trajectory of the EZ and how will the ECB likely act?

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

FX Watch: Everything that matters for EUR/USD is natural gas

FX Watch: Everything that matters for EUR/USD is natural gas

Is the EUR resilience basically just down to a continued decline in local energy costs? Natural Gas prices have explained almost the entire volatility in the EUR since 2021 and with the tide starting to turn in energy space, it may be time to watch out in FX space as well. Here is the data!

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

Something for your Espresso: Time for a cup of milk in Frankfurt?

Something for your Espresso: The USD was killed alongside the CPI

If the USD got killed because of the CPI, the USD bulls will return with a vengeance once it gets increasingly clear that the CPI is getting killed in Europe, Australia and elsewhere within a few months from here, but something more structural might be brewing beneath the surface?

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

ECB Watch: Trading the January lull

ECB Watch: 6 charts on how EUR QT impacts markets

Ahead of the ECB decision, we release our chart book on the connection between EUR liquidity and moves in EUR markets. The ECB is likely to ramp up QT from July onwards and TLTRO repayments add to the liquidity malaise.

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

Out of the Box #12: What if the deacceleration of EZ inflation starts to outpace that of the US?

Out of the box #7 – A Fistful of Euros – The European Crossroads and how to trade it

We have not been shy about our euro skepticism lately (to say the least) but as we now trade it, I thought it only appropriate to add some broader context to it. The way I perceive and understand the Eurozone I owe much to the influence of Edward Hugh who is sadly not with us anymore. I had him in mind writing this piece

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

Portfolio Watch: Time to fade soft landers entirely?

Portfolio Watch #1 – Not your rookie market

As we close out our first week with a live portfolio, we are excited to introduce our new weekly watch piece, providing a comprehensive summary of our trading week. Every Friday, we will release this publication, and we extend a warm welcome to you all in this premiere edition!

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic, Premium or Crypto plan.

Out of the Box #12: What if the deacceleration of EZ inflation starts to outpace that of the US?

Out of the box #3 – Italian banks the first domino?

While everyone is looking at Europe for safety we are taking the other side of the trade. The unbalances of the Eurozone haven’t gone away and with inflation & dark clouds on the horizon, we question whether an indebted fragmented economy can hold fast as the economic winds turn unfavorable. Lagarde is running out of bullets and fiscal ammunition is in short supply

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

Steno Signals #48 – Markets vastly underestimate the impact on USD funding from the debt ceiling

Steno Signals #48 – Markets vastly underestimate the impact on USD funding from the debt ceiling

The USD debt ceiling is a returning topic and it’s typically not overly important for markets, but this time is likely to be different. The repercussions for USD funding markets may be material and in sharp contrast to consensus expectations the USD may stage the biggest comeback since Lazarus.

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Basic, Premium or Crypto plan.


WELCOME TO STENO RESEARCH

Sign up to receive free weekly
newsletters and macro nuggets

We don’t spam! Read our privacy policy for more info.