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Out of the Box #12: What if the deacceleration of EZ inflation starts to outpace that of the US?

We revisit the eurosceptic case to assess whether we have let our pessimism get the better of us. Or could Euro bulls still be in peril?
2023-07-20

With the disinflation narrative starting to catch momentum, a long-awaited process that we have anticipated would kick in late Q1 or early Q2, we are back on track for a global economic cooldown. Central bankers are slowly but surely conceding to inflation being the last war and as they shift their primary focus shifts toward keeping the bottom up on the economy and avoiding the nasty R-word to spread. Recently Knot in ECB has turned his back on the hawk line which is the first step toward an actual pivot- hardliners need to cede ground to the doves in the council:

Chart 1: ECB Governing Council: Knot moving toward Center, more to follow?

We revisit the eurosceptic case to assess whether we have let our pessimism get the better of us. Or could Euro bulls still be in peril?

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