Portfolio Watch #1 – Not your rookie market
Hello everyone, and welcome to the premiere of our Portfolio Watch! This new regular write-up serves a twofold purpose:
- To share our thoughts and insights and evaluate/recap our performance of the past trading week
- To highlight our current areas of focus and disclose what we currently monitor
Let’s begin with the first point in order: Similarly to many others, we were taken aback by the unexpected developments in the bond market. While exiting a position at a loss is never pleasant, we find comfort in the fact that our other investments have performed well, and in our previous calls leading up to this week have been successful. We have maintained our portfolio without making any changes since closing our bond long:
If you’re interested in staying updated and potentially participating, you can follow our Live portfolio here. It is still in its early stages, and we have plans to introduce additional trades and features as it continues to evolve.
Now, let’s swiftly put this week’s events into perspective. Real rates have dealt a blow to bonds, but equities are still holding strong (AI-hyped NVDA rocketing like were we back at the .com bubble): While the S&P500 experienced a slight decline this week, Jensen Huang rescued the NDX. However, it’s worth noting that risk assets STILL appear to be overvalued from a valuation standpoint:
Chart 1: Real yield vs SP500 fwd P/E