Money is flowing towards safety, but the foundation beneath the market remains solid, with no signs of a downturn yet. In light of the geopolitical events we assess our Portfolio below
Are breakevens and commodity prices trustworthy indicators of what’s on the horizon? We believe so, but perhaps not just yet… Read this week’s Macro Nugget below
Oil positioning is not as long as people think when looking at actual volumes, bonds are still underperforming, and the bearish sentiment in equities still prevails. Read along for more positioning data insights!
FED is pausing but EM’s are already fed up and the dynamics of the 2022-trade remains our frame of guidance. But what could turn the table?
Emerging market central banks demonstrated their foresight in 2021, acting ahead of the curve. However, there is a looming concern that the resurgence in energy prices might pose a challenge for them, much like it did in 2022.
Global trade is shifting and the US economy is still going strong but the dynamics are changing as are the times. How will global macro likely change as a result?
We have run the numbers on historical correlations between the US PMI spread and various asset classes to find out what you should buy if manufacturing rebounds while services weaken.
CPI is cooling with economic data still suggesting that we are in a Goldilocks scenario. But are markets claiming their victory too early? And will unusual optimism be the catalyst for a recession?
This week has been all about the yield curve and a potential steepener here at Steno Research. We’ll end the week on a short note for those seeking alternative ways of playing the steepener.
A weaker USD, a slight rebound in the Manufacturing cycle and still tight supply has re-ignited the energy space alongside the broader commodity trend. There is certainly progress for bulls now.
With the possibility of the manufacturing sector rebounding, commodities might be in for a ride as demand increases in a tight market.
With a strong jobs report and a soft CPI print, the market is currently digesting divergent data. In the upcoming weeks, we will closely observe market positioning to interpret the implications for price action. If the inflation paradigm is shifting, how are markets prepared?
Gold has enjoyed a revival on the back of inflation and monetary expansion. But what happens when the tailwinds disappear?
Positioning will be KEY to watch as political risks and tensions mount. We offer our view on the data for the past week as Yevgeny Prigozhin marches on Moscow.
China’s export/import activity is telling for the global economy and commodities remain a sell. Meanwhile, the TRY is getting annihilated despite Erdogan’s attempts to restore economic credibility.
Why – even after successive cuts – does crude oil keep settling on a $70 barrel? The conundrum has pitted the OPEC+ alliance against each other. Suspicious eyes are turning away from outside foes, and are now looking inwards, trying to sniff out the mole who is free-riding on the collective. Will the imposter be detrimental to Saudi’s production cut strategy?
With the debt ceiling deal done and yesterday’s stunning NFP numbers, the soft landing narrative seems to be back, and optimism is gaining territory in the global macro scene. See what this means for positioning across asset classes, and whether you’ve placed your eggs in the right basket.
In short:
Watch out for the OPEC meeting this week as desperation can become the killer of solidarity, Easing energy pressures lending a helping hand to the EM space, Industrial metals screaming for more Chinese credit impulses
Based on price action, equity optimism is back, but positioning data tells us another story. We unfold the mystery, as well as providing you with positioning data across asset classes. Find out if you share the view of traders in this week’s edition.
With the failure of First Republic Bank and Ueda’s dovish remarks, we once again dig into how traders are positioned across asset classes. Find out if you have picked the right horses in this week’s edition.
It seems like traders are hesitant to make major allocation adjustments in the current environment, leaving us with a ‘silence before the storm’ impression. Find out if you have your eggs in the correct baskets in this week’s edition.
In this somewhat unusual edition of the ‘Positioning Watch’ we’ll take a look at relevant and readily available data to assess whether we are leaning with or against the wind. Maybe this can provide further insight into the ambiguity which we have experienced in markets lately.
The Chinese reopening has possibly been the most covered topic since its announcement in late 2022 – at least in financial circles. The awaited lifebuoy for the global economy, which the reopening consensually was thought to be, has yet to truly show up in prices of commodities essential in manufacturing. We prefer to stay long Industrial Metals (mainly Copper) relative to Energy.
We look into how traders are positioned every Saturday to assess whether we are leaning with or against the wind. Is this a new bull run or just another bear market rally? Let’s have a look at the numbers
At the dawn of the EV-revolution, Bolivia is at risk of being the first failed lithium state. Is Elon Musk to blame? Find out in this article, where I also explain why Bolivian lithium is still a good bet for investors.
It is hard to find a single inflation indicator not rolling over, but there is ONE and that will be tricky to handle for the Fed. Meanwhile, European energy supplies are MUCH better than feared!
We have talked over and over about supply during the past 12 months, but it is now time to talk about demand. Go short the business cycle and buy USD.
