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Something for your Espresso: No help for commodities from China (yet)

China’s export/import activity is telling for the global economy and commodities remain a sell. Meanwhile, the TRY is getting annihilated despite Erdogan’s attempts to restore economic credibility.
2023-06-07

Good morning from Europe!

Bad news out of China from the morning with weakness in export numbers, while import numbers improved slightly from already weak levels.

Exports are down 7.5% year over year, which tells a story of idiosyncratic weakness in Chinese goods manufacturing paired with a clear slowdown in the Western economy through May.

Commodities are almost perfectly correlated to Chinese import numbers and still suffer from the lack of momentum despite the Chinese reopening.

Chart 1: China needs to rebound before commodities find firm ground

China’s export/import activity is telling for the global economy and commodities remain a sell. Meanwhile, the TRY is getting annihilated despite Erdogan’s attempts to restore economic credibility.

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